The Midterms Are Looking Bad for the Dems but It's About to Get Worse

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

The 2022 midterms are coming and the Democrats are in deep trouble. They have a dissolute and incompetent leader in Joe Biden who is unpopular and deeply underwater in approval, “sinking like the Titanic”, particularly with independents who Democrats would desperately need in swing districts and states.

Normally the midterms are not good for the party in the White House, but with inflation, Afghanistan, and the border crisis among other issues on top of that, the Democrats are likely to be in even worse shape. On average, the party in the White House loses more than 25 seats.

The GOP needs to pick up just five seats to flip the House. So that’s already looking good for a bet on the GOP.

It gets better. Democrats have even more to worry about, with retirements from House Democrats coming, given that slim majority that they presently have in the House. There are already seven House Democrats retiring, with another five seeking other office. So 12 are not running again. According to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), there may be even more Democrats deciding to pack it in after the holidays. The more there are, the more they may breed, when it looks more and more doubtful that the Democrats will be able to hold the House.

Of those seven known to be retiring now, four of them are in very competitive districts including Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), Cheri Bustos (D-IL), Filemon Vela (D-TX), and Ron Kind (D-WI). Of the people leaving their seats for other positions, Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) and Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL) narrowly won, indicating that their seats are likely to be very competitive, as well.

McCarthy pointed to Kind’s retirement as a bellwether. “When you sit back and you look and you want to pinpoint when was the bellwether, when was the moment in time that you truly felt that you knew that the majority was in play and you had the capability of winning – when Ron Kind said that he was retiring,” McCarthy said.

Meanwhile, while Republicans do have nine people not running again, eight of them won their races by ten points or more, so their seats are likely not in danger.

When the House flipped to the Democrats in 2018, it was after 23 GOP retirements. So retirements are often a good sign of what may be coming.

All of this bodes well for the Republicans. All they need to do is stay on message, keep pointing out how bad Democrats have been, and don’t stand in the way as they implode all over each other.