Early voting data is showing positive signs for President Donald Trump and some troubling signs for Joe Biden.
Start off with the basic principle that there is expected to be more early, mail-in voting with Democrats, and more in-person, Election Day voting with Republicans voting for Trump.
So, one should expect the numbers of the early voting to weigh heavily in favor of the Democrats. Now, some states are tracking along like that.
But in some of the key states, turns out that isn’t the case, as NBC notes in their tracking of the early vote citing Target Smart.
In Texas, which some Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking might flip, Republicans are up by 11, 51%-40%. In Michigan, a critical battleground state, it’s 41% to 39%, Republicans. In Ohio, the numbers are looking even better, with 46%-41 of the returned ballots favoring the GOP. In Wisconsin, it’s 40%-38% in the requested ballots, Republicans. Arizona is tied at 36%.
Early voting results from Michigan and Wisconsin. Not sure if I’m missing something but this doesn’t make me optimistic that Biden takes back both these states. pic.twitter.com/JcWRiTpvur
— Johnny Farmer (@JohnnyFarmer69) October 17, 2020
You can check more of the results by state here.
Given that Trump voters are expected to come out in force on Election Day, that’s looking good, if Republicans are up or basically tied in the early voting in those states. A lot of Republicans were expected not to vote by mail but in person, because of concerns about the process.
Now, of course, it remains to be seen how many will turn out on Election Day. As we previously reported, there are a lot of metrics that lean toward a Trump win, from primary support to enthusiasm level, despite the fact that a lot of the polls are running heavily Biden. Give the prior history of most of those polls, one can’t put much trust in them.
Voter registration numbers have also shown more positive signs for the Republicans.
In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.
JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.
Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.
JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.
FLORIDA: Democrats’ longtime voter registration edge is disappearing, down to just 134,000 over Republicans ahead of Election Day—closest margin in recent history.
In 2012, Democrats had a 535,987 voter edge & Obama won.
In 2016, Democrats had a 327,428 voter edge & Trump won.
— Nicole Sganga (@NicoleSganga) October 15, 2020