It’s not looking like a happy Halloween for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Only one state has flipped since last week’s results. While that sounds like good new for Trump, the problem is the fundamentals of the race haven’t changed. That’s a big Halloween scare for those looking to defeat Hillary Clinton.
The map did change by one state: Florida has flipped back to the Republican column. That results in a 304-234 advantage for Hillary Clinton, which is a tighter race than we’ve seen in some weeks, but a bigger win than George W. Bush ever had.
The Battleground outlook is dire for Donald Trump. Texas is no longer a toss-up for him, but without the toss-ups, Hillary Clinton is only 7 electoral votes away. She wins outright by picking up any of Arizona, Colorado, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, or Florida. She also wins by grabbing any two of Nevada, Iowa, and Maine’s second district.
The math gets really bad, really fast, if you calculate the probability of that happening. Basically, Trump hasn’t gained enough ground in October, so he needs the polling to change really fast after the Anthony Weiner email business. Early voting is already going on, and Hillary Clinton has locked in an advantage. Trump has to find a way to overcome that at election day.
But it’s hard for me to see how Clinton throwing Huma Abedin under the bus accomplishes that for Trump. Trump just needs the polling to be badly wrong next week.