Donald Trump may be continuing to have a terrible run in the national head-to-head polling, he’s turning out to have a very good week in the state polling.
But we’ve been here before. The important question is, what happens next?
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Sharonville Convention Center, Wednesday, July 6, 2016, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
While some will point out it’s not that great to have your good news coming almost exclusively from one pollster, Team Trump has to take good news from whatever sources it can get these days. That’s what a desperate campaign struggling from behind has to do!
Here’s a summary of his good news polls this week:
- Quinnipiac: Trump +2 in Pennsylvania
- Quinnipiac: Clinton/Trump EVEN in Ohio
- Quinnipiac: Trump +3 in Florida
- Monmouth: Trump +2 in Iowa
- JMC: Trump +5 in Florida
For a guy who cratered in the polls after his “Mexican Judge” comments, this is great news! However there are two very good reasons to believe this won’t last. I’m speaking to you, RNC delegates:
First, the polling demographics are suspect. As RedState’s own Leon Wolf points out, the poll ID figures in the Quinnipiac poll are bonkers, predicting a massive wave away from the Democrats. Basically, the poll predicts the electorate is suddenly going to look like 2004 again, a year when George W. Bush as the incumbent was pulling Hispanics at a very good rate, while holding together the Republican coalition, against a Democrat who was handed the nomination by Shrieking Howard Dean.
This year though the Republican coalition is in tatters, and the Democrats had a hard-fought campaign that wasn’t ended by scandal, but rather by a lengthy debate on the future of the party. Nobody won by default, and the votes had to be earned the hard way. The Republicans are weaker, aren’t running an incumbent President, while the Democrats are stronger, and primary-tested.
Second, the Trump campaign has gone a while since it’s sparked a scandal. Right now he’s milking the Vice Presidential selection for headlines, but that can only last so long. Eventually the man is going to lash out again, perhaps over another bad ruling from the judge overseeing those people suing him for his Trump University scam. Maybe he’ll say something stupid about David Duke running for Congress. Perhaps he’ll promote another anti-Semitic tweet. It’ll be something though. The man can’t help himself.
But for today, ignoring all trends, numbers, and history, Trump has a few good-looking polls. I’m sure his supporters will savor it.