Presidential polling update: Can Trump catch up?

Donald Trump’s been getting bad polls ever since had racist rant against the judge overseeing the students suing him for the Trump University scam.

But can he turn it around?


Donald Trump
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The addition of the Gravis poll has certainly been good for Donald Trump’s trend in the Real Clear Politics. Look at that chart and you’d think he’s really turned it around, but it’s an illusion. You see, most polls aren’t yet pushing hard to get undecided voters to come to a decision, so most polls are showing low numbers for Hillary Clinton and Trump, such as USA Today’s Clinton 46-Trump 40, or Fox’s Clinton 44-Trump 38.

But Gravis is pushing the leaners hard. Its latest poll was Clinton 50-Trump 48, and before that it showed Clinton 51-Trump 47 and Clinton 50-Trump 48. Which means that even though Gravis is lifting the Trump red line on the chart, these results are not actually showing any movement in the race in his direction. Gravis is showing no movement at all!

The Gravis poll will be interesting to watch though, as it’s a poll of registered voters. Later, when the polling shifts to likely voters, then people will drop out of this result, who would rather stay home than vote for either of them. That should, in theory, bring Gravis in line with the other polls.

The fundamentals don’t seem to be changing. Trump evened the race after he became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, then he gave away that tie by making racist comments. He hasn’t caught up yet, and it’s not clear if he ever will catch up.