Donald Trump has led by as much as 10 points in Wisconsin polling and is approaching the critical 50% threshold in New York, but both states could end up terrible disappointments for the Branch Trumpidians.
Marquette had Trump rocket from a 3 point deficit to a 10 point lead from Thanksgiving to the end of February. It was looking good for him. But with today’s new poll from Emerson College putting the race at Ted Cruz +5, that makes six straight polls and eight out of nine that Trump has lost.
Unless Cruz really underperforms, or Trump overperforms (and this primary cycle has generally seen the opposite in both respects), Trump will have proved himself in Wisconsin to be a big chocker!
And then there’s New York. What’s not to like for Trump about New York, you might ask? Well, Trump has to hit 50% in each congressional district in order to sweep the delegates in each district. It’s that rule, that had most observers penciling in a sweep of the state for the man famous for inheriting his father’s real estate empire in the state.
But it’s not really a sure thing that Trump is going to succeed in doing that statewide. He’s ranged from 50 to 56 in the last four polls, taken over the last 10 days. As long as one of Kasich or Cruz hits 20, every district where Trump fails to hit 50, costs him a third of the delegates in that district. A bad night could quickly mute Trump’s coming home state win.
Just how bad of a chocker is Trump? We’ll find out.