If this cycle’s history servers, we’re going to have a lag between the debate last night, and the next round of polls after the debate. Pollsters are rushing to get in their polls before the debate, rather than after. It turns out they get more headlines by being part of the debate inclusion criteria, than they do for measuring the results of the poll.
So we go to war with the polls we have. Since I declared Ben Carson the frontrunner, the polls we have continue to give Carson the edge over Donald Trump in the GOP Presidential race.
We’ve had three polls since I declared Carson the front runner. One poll was of South Carolina by Clemson. It has Donald Trump ahead 23-19.
The Oklahoman polled Oklahoma. Ben Carson won that poll 25-19.
KTVT-11 polled Texas. Ben Carson also won that poll, 23-22.
And finally just 50 minutes before this post goes live, we have a Pennsylvania poll by Franklin & Marshall. Trump got one!
Where we stood before, Carson had won six of nine polls, and tied one. Now Carson has won 8 of 13, and tied one. There is no doubt that going into the debate last night, Ben Carson was the 2016 Republican Presidential frontrunner.
Of course we await eagerly the post-debate polling. In the past, post-debate polling helped Trump and Carly Fiorina. But Trump by all accounts was not his usual self, didn’t talk the most, and didn’t dominate the stage. Fiorina’s debate has been called forgettable. Of course, so has Carson’s.
The commentators have had their say. Now we need to find out what the voters think. Until then, Carson’s still winning.