A new poll from Roanoke College was just released which confirms what a lot of other polls have found: that whatever you think is happening in the national polling, Trump is losing Virginia, and losing it badly. The RC poll shows Trump receiving an astoundingly anemic 32% of the vote in Virginia, and losing to Hillary by 16 points.
The other polls don’t have Trump losing quite that badly in Virginia, but the RCP average now shows Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead in the Commonwealth, which means that you can take Virginia off the table as a “swing” state – barring a major catastrophe, Hillary Clinton is going to win Virginia walking away.
This is, to say the least, problematic for Trump’s chances in November. Even if he’s somehow able to right the ship and recapture Ohio and Florida, he will still lose if he loses either Virginia or Colorado (another state where he is behind by double digits), unless he can pick up an equivalent number of electoral votes from states Bush did not carry in 2004. And as I’ve laid out here before, doing so will be a borderline impossible task for Trump unless he can firmly establish a 2-3 point national lead, which doesn’t look likely at this point.
In other words: the national polling is bad for Trump at this point, but the state level polling is even worse.