First off, I considered making the title of this piece less offensive to Donald Trump voters, but I am told that you people like folks who are offensive for the sake of being offensive, that you reject “political correctness” and appreciate someone “telling it like it is.” So really, I hope you’ll appreciate the effort I’ve put in to speaking to you in a language that you’ll respect.
That having been said, while it has rightly been observed by many that Trump is courting morons and having a lot of success attracting them to his campaign, he’s probably not even the worst candidate remaining in the field in this regard. That honor, of course, belongs to John Kasich.
Kasich has been out there telling everyone who will stick a microphone in his face that he is going to win Ohio next Tuesday, and that after that happens, the race will “reset” and he’ll be in a good position to win. Only a moron would buy this argument, and I don’t just mean that in the sense of “you’d have to be a moron to believe that John Kasich would suddenly start beating Trump everywhere just because he won his home state of Ohio.” I mean “you’d have to be a moron to not understand the basic math of John Kasich’s current predicament.”
Let me break this down very simply. There are 1,435 delegates who are left in the entire GOP nominating calendar. In order to get the nomination, a candidate needs 1,237 delegates. John Kasich currently has 54 delegates. That means that, in order to get the nomination, Kasich would have to get 1183 of the remaining 1,435 delegates – or 82.4%. That’s already impossible, just as a starting point. The reason is that if any other candidate not named John Kasich gets a total of 252 delegates from here on out, he is screwed.
But the reality is that even if Kasich’s best case scenario comes true – he wins Ohio on Tuesday, but doesn’t really win anywhere else – it’s about to get a whole bunch worse. Let’s just start with Florida. Kasich doesn’t even contend that he’s going to win Florida, which is winner take all. Someone else is going to get those 99 delegates, which means that Kasich will be mathematically eliminated from contention for the nomination if he loses another 153 total delegates.
Other than Ohio and Florida, there are exactly 200 delegates up for grabs on March 15th. In many/most of these states, Kasich is not even seriously contending at all. Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina are not going to be wins for Kasich and not even he would claim that they will be. It would frankly be a stunningly positive result for John Kasich if someone else got only 100 of those delegates. Thus, even in the rosiest of possible scenarios, John Kasich could only lose a total of 53 delegates from next Tuesday all the way to the convention.
Of course, the far, far more likely scenario is that Kasich loses at least 153 out of the 200 delegates available in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and the Marianas Islands and is mathematically eliminated from contention, even if he wins Ohio on Tuesday.
With that in mind, who would possibly vote for John Kasich in any state other than Ohio (for the exclusive reason of stopping Trump) next Tuesday? Only a moron, that’s who. And yet it’s exactly those people who Kasich is preaching to whenever he talks to any voter that’s not from Ohio.