I write from what I suspect is a growing minority position within some conservative circles: Namely, I still believe it's in America's best interests to assist Ukraine in standing up to Russia.
The Russians are open to peace because Putin knows they have used more resources than expected - a lot more - in trying to take the country. And, I suspect, they are worried that their support from China might dry up because of all the resources they have used to make what amounts to little gain in Ukraine. So while everyone is accusing President Donald Trump of bowing to Putin's whims, the truth is a bit more complex. It's not that peace would give Putin what he wants in Ukraine, but it allows Putin to save face.
What happened in the Oval Office yesterday was a boon for Putin. That's not really in question. It's less about how Trump "helped" Putin and more about how Volodymyr Zelensky helped Putin.
Why Russia Wants Out
My position has remained fairly consistent throughout all this: The more resources Russia throws at Ukraine without making any real gains, the less resources they have to use against other American interests. Russia weakening itself is a good thing. And with China maintaining "no limits" support of Russia, China is throwing resources at Russia to prop them up.
So, this war is burning through Russian and Chinese resources. The more they waste on Ukraine, the less they have elsewhere. It's not enough to completely stop China from, say, going after Taiwan, but it does help.
Truth be told, I want Russia distracted with Putin's ambition to rebuild Soviet-era borders. I want us to help Russia stay distracted not with our boots on the ground but American weapons. If Russia wants out, which it seems like they do given Putin's previous stances on taking Ukraine, then it means Russia is struggling more than they're willing to admit.
Now, the flipside of that is that war means more Ukrainian lives lost, which is not good for Ukraine. Russia has a lot more bodies to throw at Ukraine than the other way around, which is another reason American weapons have been good for Ukraine. It's incredibly likely more lives would have been lost without them, and they've been more effective at hurting Russia's military.
Zelensky Royally Screwed Up
The problem is that if Ukraine wanted more American support, Zelensky showed he has a deep misunderstanding of how to approach a leader like Trump.
There are hours worth of videos and transcripts of people who decided to get into a loud argument with Trump in front of cameras. Every single time, it never actually ends well for the person getting into a shouting match. You'll note that even in the debate people say Kalama Harris won against Trump, it did nothing to help her win.
If Zelensky felt that his usual performance of playing the passionate, angry victim in front of cameras would work, and that that derailing public press event with Trump was a good idea, then it shows he's not really the great leader everyone has praised him of being. I don't much care for some of Trump's comments toward Zelensky in the past, but the latter made a massive mistake on Friday, and his subsequent thread on X didn't help matters at all.
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What you're going to see is the media rush out a bunch of polls showing Americans support Ukraine and that moderate Americans and a handful of Republicans think Trump looked worse in that exchange. But there were over 40 minutes of Zelensky being nothing short of an ass to Trump and feeling entitled to support. That is not diplomacy, either, and it's lost in the outrage generated over the much shorter exchange.
Ukraine Devastated in a Single Moment
That entire press event did more damage to Ukraine's cause than anything Putin could have done. In the wake of the event, three things happened:
- Zelensky (probably) cost himself any meaningful assistance from the U.S. for at least four years.
- Europe shared strong words on social media and nothing else, exposing itself as useless in the face of Russia.
- The entire foreign policy establishment shuddered, realizing the guy they've been praising as a strong leader is a child.
And when I say "the entire foreign policy establishment," I don't mean the liberal foreign policy folks who have been on the wrong side of every issue for at least 40 years. They are normally the loudest voices, and it seems like today they are the most silent.
And, no, I'm not talking about foreign policy folks who held appointed government positions, like Ben "I'm gonna give billions to Iran and watch my boss just give Crimea to Russia" Rhodes. Though, for the record, he is being extremely unserious on social media in the wake of Zelensky's Disaster.
I am talking about the experts out there who follow this stuff closely, monitor every single story, every statement, every use of hard and soft power, and catalogue it all. Not partisans who call themselves experts. Take this bit, from CNN's Jake Tapper.
If those guys are saying that Ukraine might want to play nice with Trump and follow his lead, then there's something to it.
America: The World's Police
People on the right and the left believe America should not be the world's police force, inserting itself into conflicts all over the globe. But what a lot of folks miss (and they only miss it when it's their opponents in office, because their own side can do no wrong) is that police aren't just folks with weapons who go out to stop the bad guys. Police are also peacekeepers, and you don't always need weapons or aggression to do that.
No one has any real idea what Trump's plan for peace is. He's offered hints and tidbits, but there's really been no major reveal of a plan. Zelensky has made it a lot harder to get favorable terms, though, because he vastly overestimated his ability to generate positive PR. You don't walk into a press event with a plastic flashlight and try to steal the spotlight from a guy who regularly douses himself in 100,000 lumens.
The Trump administration can be an ally to Ukraine, but Zelensky has to understand how to approach them. What he did on Friday was perhaps the worst way to go about it. He can fix it, but it's going to take a lot of work.
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