Whether You're Pro- or Anti-Trump, Don't Get Your Hopes Up

It all officially begins today.

In the frozen tundra of Iowa, caucus-goers are gathering as the rest of the country looks on. It's a big deal for political junkies, but also for the future of each party - especially the Republican Party.

Depending on who you talk to, there is a sincere belief that their side is going to come out ahead. The Trump camp believes they have it in the bag, and it's hard not to. All the public polling shows Trump with a huge lead in Iowa. The worst polling for the former president, the Des Moines Register/NBC News poll that dropped on Saturday, shows Trump at 48 percent. It's the only recent poll to have him below a majority of voters, but still way ahead of the rest of the pack.

If you talk to the DeSantis camp, they believe that his march through every county in the state and the investment into winning it will yield good results. To them, it's less about the polling and more about the boots on the ground - after all, polling is how people vote, and caucuses are different than voting in elections. There is a lot more room for success in this system.

The Haley camp, meanwhile, believes that her recent momentum hasn't peaked and could very well take her close to, if not past, Trump today. Her debate performances have largely served her well (the most recent performance in Iowa against DeSantis was her weakest), and the anti-Trump voters appear to be consolidating behind her. The question is, ultimately, has she hit her ceiling?

But whether you are pro- or anti-Trump, the contest is far from decided.

The theory of Caucus Day for the non-Trump candidates is that the blistering cold and frozen landscape will convince some folks to stay home - particularly older caucus-goers, who seem largely lean toward Trump. If Trump's supporters believe he has it in the bag, they may be less inclined to turn up today thinking that others will. It's not outside the realm of possibility, and the Haley and DeSantis camps are quietly hoping this will be the case.

But it's far from guaranteed. In fact, it's more unlikely than likely. There is a very real sense of inevitability where Trump is concerned, and it's a big part of why you see so many people saying they'll vote for him. There's a greater than zero chance that a portion of the people telling pollsters they support Trump is because they feel he's going to win it all anyway.

Which is why most people feel pretty certain Trump is going to win. Everything is already working out in his favor. Even though people in the non-Trump camps see a glimmer of light, it may just be a trick to the eyes.

If you're the Trump camp, however, you're not in the clear yet. Sure, something could happen today, but Trump's biggest problems are still down the road. He is still under indictment in multiple states, Haley is surging fast in New Hampshire, and there are still a ton of variables elsewhere.

The biggest variable is the indictments. Most of them, Trump will probably be able to beat. Fani Willis is busy making sure the judge won't take her case seriously. Very few people, left or right, have any faith in Alvin Bragg's prosecution. Jack Smith has been throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks.

The only that probably poses a real threat to Trump is the Mar-a-Lago documents case, because the evidence there is the most damning. If what DOJ says is true and Trump deliberately withheld documents from a grand jury (and lied about it), then he could be looking at a guilty verdict there. But it's still not guaranteed.

Still, if he's found guilty on any of the charges, there is polling to suggest it would have an impact on the primary and the general. That alone is enough to keep Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the race, even if Trump is dominant right now. They can outlast his legal problems and use them to their advantage. It's not enough to have a massive lead with all these other factors at play.

Nothing is guaranteed in this race, which is why things feel so chaotic right now.