Donald Trump's Path to Victory Has Gotten a Little Bit More Complicated

For those who missed it… well, bless you for being able to turn the news off and not pay attention to these things after 5 p.m. You live a life that I am frankly jealous of. But, anyway, if you missed it, former president Donald Trump has announced he’ll be making an appearance in federal court in Miami on Tuesday.


It would appear there are several charges coming out of the Mar-a-Lago classified documents probe, with the potential for each to be serious if the 2024 GOP frontrunner is found guilty.

The legal issues are quite serious, but there is also the fact that he is actively running for President of the United States. And while we can argue until we turn blue about whether or not this is “Banana Republic” behavior, the fact of the matter is that it’s happening despite our feelings of whether or not it should.

This will have a few major impacts on the 2024 primary, and it is guaranteed to affect how Trump will campaign going forward. You will probably see a major bump in the polls for Trump as Republicans rally around someone who they see is being persecuted by a politically-motivated Biden administration and its Department of Justice. That makes it significantly harder for the other presidential candidates in the race to get their message through – they can’t ignore it, and they can’t really praise it if they want to remain in good standing with their base.


But that’s in the short term. What about the long term?

Donald Trump’s biggest issue is that, while he is ahead in the polls and doesn’t have to go out on the campaign trail right away (he has been doing minimal campaigning and coasting along with his numbers), he will have to make adjustments in the long run. Time spent fighting indictments from the DOJ (along with other investigations and charges) means time he can’t be holding rallies and meeting with voters.

He will have to sacrifice time from the campaign trail to appear in court. He will have to sacrifice campaign cash to pay his legal team. He will certainly take time away from talking points that matter to voters (economy, crime, immigration, etc.) to talk about how he is being persecuted. All of these things can add up, and it can prove to be a negative.

That’s not to say it will, mind you. Trump can continue to coast along because he certainly doesn’t need name recognition and, as previously stated, this will certainly give him a bump now. But we’re half a year away from the first votes being cast, the first debates, and the primary season really kicking off. A lot can change between now and then.


And, again, we can argue about fairness and weaponized government agencies, but if the reports are true and there is some substantial evidence showing Trump wasn’t honest about what he had or that some of the documents weren’t classified, then we’ve got a more serious situation where he could be in serious legal trouble.

But… you can still run a presidential campaign from a jail cell. The only way you’re knocking Trump out of the race is by getting him to voluntarily quit. And it’s just hard to see that happening.


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