Yesterday morning Joe Scarborough insulted the #NeverTrump crowd, saying that there were probably only about 12 people on Twitter in that movement. Being the scientific person that I am, I put that theory to the test. The results of the test concluded that Joe Scarborough is the wrongest he’s ever been.
— Joe Cunningham (@JoePCunningham) May 2, 2016
As you can see, we have gone a little bit above 13 retweets. As of the time I wrote this out, it’s 924 retweets, in fact.
Here’s the interesting thing, though. Normally, when you put up “#NeverTrump” and some folks with high follower counts retweet it, then you get a lot of very ugly replies from Trump supporters. In looking at the analytics for the tweet (which, if you’re a data junkie, Twitter’s analytics are awesome), well over 40,000 people have seen the tweet, over 1,000 have clicked on the tweet, 228 have clicked on through to my profile, 75 people have replied, and dozens have quoted the tweet.
Of all those numbers, maybe 10 or so have sent me something in support of Trump, and most of those were half-hearted at best. I’m not saying the Trump movement is dying, mind you – I’ve never had much luck getting Trumpkins to come after me like they do my colleagues (which deprives me of countless hours of entertainment) – but it is an indicator that, on social media, the anti-Trump movement is growing.
Here’s the other thing: The Trumpkins didn’t start reacting to the tweet until this morning. There are two explanations for this. The first is that the odds were against it in the beginning, when fewer people were exposed to the tweet. The problem with that explanation is that Trumpkins like to talk about how they are dominating everywhere. For them to not see the tweet means their numbers are a lot lower than they would like us to believe.
The second explanation is that they didn’t take the idea of #NeverTrump being influential very seriously. They could ignore it and go about their day… then they saw that tweet hitting 700, 800, even 900 retweets, which in the social media world is pretty big. Then they realized there might be something to it.
And there is. As Trump talks more and more and as people stand up and point out why he is terrible, some of those hoodwinked will inevitably turn away from him. The Democrats who have crossed over to vote for Trump will abandon him in the general. Democrats will use attack ads using Trump’s own demeaning words toward women and others and turn independents away.
And the best part is that the #NeverTrump hashtag will be blamed. Even though we predicted all of this from the very beginning.