Better Know a Super Tuesday State: Vermont Primary Preview

Previous installments of this series: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Virginia

Vermont, one of the many Super Tuesday states, is poised to deliver 16 delegates between Republicans and 26 delegates (16 bound delegates and 10 super delegates) come Tuesday night. It being Vermont, you can probably guess where the popular vote for the Democrats is going, but is it going to be close for the Republicans?


If the polling is anything to go by, then Vermont is full of people who like their rhetoric at its furthest extremes. On one side, you’ve got the Vermont Senator, Bernie Sanders, with a commanding (though expected) lead over Hillary Clinton, roughly 85-10 according to the RCP average, which is of two polls.

In the Republican primary, Donald Trump has a strong, 15-point lead over second place contender Marco Rubio, 32-17. Ted Cruz comes in third with 11. Vermont has a percentage threshold of 20%, which means that Rubio (according to the one and only poll that I can find) won’t even qualify for candidates as things now stand. However, that poll was conducted before the most recent debate, which could have an impact on support. Vermont is also notoriously pro-gun, and Trump has made statements in the past that he is for banning certain types of guns from being sold. A candidate could very well make issue of that at the last minute.


There has not been a whole lot of action in Vermont, either, as candidates have focused on higher-profile states (and ones that trend more Republican). Vermont has been largely Democratic since 1992, and well above 50% Democratic for a decade. It is not likely that it will provide much of a benefit in the long run.

As far as visits to Vermont have gone, Trump has made at least one newsworthy trip to the state, but back in January. Not much else has gone on. Will it be overlooked on Tuesday? Or will something surprising happen?



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