WaPo Poll: Hidden in the Data, Biden and Harris Have Lost the Black Vote

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

“There are lies, damn lies, and statistics,” and then – there are polls. 

Practicing law, and particularly trying cases, I would often ask certain questions first to create a bias for later questions. For instance, asking questions I knew would anger the witness would likely produce a more visceral response to a subsequent question. Set-up questions almost “require” an answer that may have been different without the set-up. 

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A Washington Post Headline Tuesday morning

Most Americans approve of DEI, according to Post-Ipsos Poll”

I read the article and then went to the polling data. The questions asked and the order of the questions seemed significant and although the article is “about” DEI, what wasn’t mentioned is also interesting. Very interesting.

The data was collected from a total of 2,274 Americans. Of that total, 1,371 “workers” were polled. I assume “workers” means employees, not owners, unemployed or retired. Of that total, 1,225 were black. That’s 54 percent of the total polled, indicating a massive oversampling of the black population. Oversampling can be corrected. For instance

Variable                                    Non-Black             Black

Pop %                                              87                        13       

Sample                                            46                         54

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Weight                                     1.89 (87/46)          .24 (13/54)

Weight x sample n           87 (1.89 x 46)             13 (.24 x 54)

Why oversample to such an extreme? I don’t know. Oversampling is generally done to compensate for hard-to-find populations, so why oversample by a factor of four? I can’t answer that, but it seems odd that such an extreme number of blacks were polled.  

The poll also asked questions that seemed to lead the respondent to answer in the affirmative and there were separate questions asked of black Americans and “working” black Americans. It was the latter that drew my attention. 

Confused? Well, allow me to get to the meat that I found in the polling questions and answers. The results on DEI are a little higher than other poll results – with the majority of other polls finding slightly more than a majority supporting the general theory. How those answers are influenced by “I don’t want to be cast as a bigot” thinking is an open question. For this poll most people polled were generally ok with DEI, but within the poll results rests answers that are disastrous for Joe Biden, his vice president, and the Democrat Party. 

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For multiple generations, Democrats have relied on black voters voting Democrat. It’s always been axiomatic that any Democrat president would get the black vote, and faithfully in the high 80s percentage-wise. Anything approaching less than 85-88 would spell doom for Joe Biden.


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In the WaPo poll, black Americans were asked:  

“How would you feel if each of the following happened in 2024? - Biden is reelected president” 

Thirty-three percent were negative. 33 Percent. 

Another question

How would you feel if each of the following happened in 2024? - Trump is elected for another term as president?

Although 86 were not positive, 14 percent were a “net” positive. That, in short, is disastrous for Joe Biden. He needs 85-88 percent of the black vote, or he is toast.  

Also included in the results is that Kamala Harris is almost as unpopular with black voters as she is with the general public. The poll asked the question:

If something were to happen to Biden, do you think that Harris would be qualified to take over as president of the United States, or not?

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A full one in four black respondents found Kamala Harris to be unqualified to be president.

Biden and his team of media sycophants continue to gaslight on the economy, the border, and his mental cognition, but if Biden has lost 14 percent of the black vote and 25 percent of blacks think that VP Harris is too incompetent to be president, all Trump needs to do is focus on Biden (and his heir-to-be) and the election is his to lose. 

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