The Trafalgar Group partnered with Convention of the States Action on a poll about public confidence in the GOP going into the midterms. For those looking for a Red Wave, the numbers do not instill confidence. The poll was conducted between September 2-5, 2022 and gauged 1084 respondents made up of likely voters. The biggest takeaway:

When asked,

Have Republicans made a strong enough case as to why they should earn your support in the 2022 midterm elections?

A whopping 56 percent of Republicans said “NO.” Worse, 57 percent of independents also said, “NO.” As RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy tweet about what’s wrong with Democrats and their policies, they are doing little to clearly articulate what they support and what they will do if they get back the reins of power.

The one solid point of victory that Republicans could embrace and champion is instead being squandered by this foolishness from GOP-E lackey Sen. Lindsay Graham.

snatching defeat from the jaws of victory https://t.co/yksey1I8oT

— Gigi Levangie, etc. (@GigiLevangie) September 13, 2022

So, that Red Wave is quickly turning into a trickle, and this is why. One of the most positive, hardworking, and motivated activists on the ground is pretty much saying the same thing.

I don’t think there’ll be a 🔴 wave — maybe a trickle.

Except AZ, FL, & NV, it isn’t looking good.

People tell me, “I would give up everything for this country.”

Those same people won’t knock on doors or become Election Day Workers.

Unless voters DO SOMETHING, I see no wave.

— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) September 5, 2022

While I wholesale agree with my colleague Scott Pressler, voters will not DO SOMETHING until the GOP focuses on a message that voters care about. Don’t talk about how horrible inflation has become, talk about what the policies you implement will do to right the ship. Don’t talk about gas prices, talk about how you will restore energy independence. Don’t talk about the horrors of CRT and the transgender and pornography curriculum being shoved in children’s faces, talk about how you plan to support school choice and parents who want their children to learn, not be indoctrinated.

Where the voter enthusiasm exists is clear — but the Republican candidates who are catching fire with voters aren’t necessarily the ones that the GOP elite particularly like. Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Adam Laxalt, to name a few, are not being touted by the likes of Ronna McDaniel. In fact, in some of the primaries, the RNC ran candidates against them. Aside from former President Donald Trump, few of these grassroots and America First candidates have received full-throated endorsements from any so-called standard bearer in the Republican Party.

Yet, the RNC sent out a memo on Monday, proclaiming it was connecting with voters and giving candidates suggestions on messaging.

From The Hill:

A Republican National Committee (RNC) memo aims to tell GOP candidates in the height of the midterm season how to drive their points home to independent and swing voters so their messages don’t fall flat.

The messaging memo issued Monday from the RNC along with Kellyanne Conway’s KAConsulting and The Tarrance Group, first provided to The Hill, gives messaging suggestions to Republican candidates in five top policy areas: cost of living and the economy, abortion, crime and safety, energy and the environment, and education.

“In all instances, it is important that Republicans finish their sentences,” the memo said about candidates following through to communicate full messages to voters.

It acknowledges some gaps in messaging, like voters not connecting unpopular policies on crime to Democratic candidates, and notes that some voters are unsure who to blame for rising costs.

And so are Republicans. Those fingers they’re pointing? Three more are pointing back at them.

The memo said that it “brought together several research methods” that “combined both polling and modeling” in order to provide an analysis of the midterm voters and recommendations for how candidates should address top issues.

In a statement, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said Republican candidates “are meeting voters where they are and discussing the issues they care about, from the economy to crime and safety,” and that “voters will turn to the candidates who showed compassion and solutions for their concerns.”

What message? That you suck at messaging?

As the Trafalgar poll indicates, voters have pretty much gotten that.

Along with the inability to talk about crime and clearly connect it to Democrat and progressive policies, Republicans are also dropping the ball on school choice. The places where a Red awakening is occurring are the places where hard-fought battles for school choice and the overturn of school boards are happening. Virginia, Florida, and Texas have been the bellwethers, but other local and state municipalities are on the cusp of upending their statist educational systems. But instead of the GOP embracing this message and championing it, along with the candidates running as Republicans, they are trotting out the tired talking points and giving Democrats fodder by trying to again nationalize what the Supreme Court did its best to return to the states.

If the people on the ground are saying a Red Wave may not happen, then Republicans need to get that memo — and chuck the one written by their paid consultants.

Don't assume there is a red wave coming.

If we don’t turn out BIG in November.

There will be no wave.

— Mayra Flores (@MayraFlores2022) September 2, 2022