The problem has become so pronounced that even the left is admitting it. The Democratic Party is bleeding supporters among black and brown voters. This is a troubling development for Democrats, whose reliance on these voting blocs has served them quite well over the decades.
If this trend continues, the left will be in a heap of trouble politically over the long term. Of course, this is assuming that the Republican Party is willing to sustain its continued efforts to court minorities in the years to come.
Latino voters have shown a remarkable shift in their voting patterns. While most still support Democrats, there are signs that the party’s hold on these voters is gradually slipping. An NBC/Telemundo poll found that 54 percent of Latino respondents indicated they prefer that Democrats retain control of Congress, while 33 percent said they would rather see Republicans retake the legislature. This 21-point lead is a significant decrease from the 26-point lead Democrats enjoyed in October 2020 and the 34-point lead it had in November 2018.
Even more troubling for Democrats is that Latinos favor the GOP on the issues that are the top priorities for the upcoming congressional elections: The economy, immigration, and crime. However, Democrats do win on abortion, health care, addressing the concerns of the Hispanic community, and protecting democracy – whatever that means.
While more Latinos are saying “adios” to the Democrats, there has also been an increase in the number of black voters doing the same. Indeed, a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed that while the majority of blacks are still supporting Democrats, the percentages have decreased over the years.
When asked which party they would support when voting for a member of Congress, 79 percent of black voters chose Democrats while 18 percent chose a Republican candidate. Given that Democrats have typically won over 90 percent of black votes, this is a significant decline.
But even more noteworthy is how black respondents answered when asked who they would choose if the 2024 presidential election were held today. About 70 percent indicated they would support President Joe Biden, while a whopping 23 percent would choose former President Donald Trump, who won about 12 percent of the black vote in 2020.
CNN’s Harry Enten wrote an op-ed in which he analyzed current and past polling. He wrote:
An average of the final five live interview polls of the 2020 election showed Biden with an 84% to 9% lead over then-President Donald Trump among Black voters – a big 75-point advantage. But this year, an average of the last five live interview polls I could find gives Democrats a 74% to 12% advantage among Black voters – a 62-point edge – on the generic congressional ballot, which usually asks respondents some form of the following question: “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican party?”
Enten also noted that the live interview polls he analyzed from the 2018 congressional elections “showed Democrats with an 85% to 9% lead on the generic ballot with Black voters.”
This trend is evident in Georgia’s gubernatorial race. Stacey Abrams, who challenged Gov. Brian Kemp in 2018, is not getting the usual level of black support despite positioning herself as a crusader for civil rights against election laws that somehow constituted Jim Crow 2.0. A recent poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows that 79 percent of African Americans support Abrams. About 10 percent indicated they would support Kemp. The rest were undecided. While the governor will likely increase his black support, having won 6 percent in 2018, it appears black voters in Georgia are more likely to sit out the election.
These are some dismal numbers for Democrats. But they are not surprising. The party has alienated much of its base by moving further to the left, a move that is off-putting to blacks and Latinos who still hold many conservative views on important issues. Furthermore, the fact that Democrats have not brought about any real improvements for these communities since they took power last year isn’t exactly helping matters.
Needless to say, this is a prime opportunity for the Republican Party, which has struggled to reach these demographics. But now that the GOP seems to be putting forth a genuine effort to make inroads in these communities, we could be on the verge of a sea change. Of course, this is only true if the former Party of Lincoln is willing to make a concerted effort for the long haul. If not, it won’t be long before Democrats figure out how to win back their base.
