Even though all eyes are on the upcoming congressional elections, this does not mean members of the chattering class don’t still have 2024 on their minds. In fact, many have already speculated as to how the lineup on both sides of the aisle will shake out when it comes time for the parties to put forth their chosen candidates for the presidency. While indications suggest another Biden vs. Trump contest, there are signs that voters in parties would prefer to see a different matchup.
A new Politico-Morning Consult poll found that a majority of voters believe President Biden and former President Donald Trump should not seek the White House again in 2024. About 48 percent of respondents said Trump should “definitely not” run again, while 13 percent felt he should “probably” not.
A higher percentage of voters said Biden should not run for re-election, with 46 percent saying he should “definitely not” seek another term and 18 percent saying he “probably” shouldn’t.
Much of the reason why voters do not want to see Biden or Trump run again is related to their ages. Biden would be 81 while campaigning and 82 when taking office again if he won. Trump would be 78 during the heart of the campaign and on his second inauguration if he won. Trump supporters have dismissed concerns about the Republican’s age, noting he still seems to be in decent health as opposed to Biden, who has shown signs of mental and physical decline.
In a post on Truth Social, the former president addressed Biden’s age:
“President Biden is one of the oldest 79s in History, but by and of itself, he is not an old man. There are many people in their 80s, and even 90s, that are as good and sharp as ever. Biden is not one of them, but it has little to do with his age. In actuality, life begins at 80!”
Other studies have shown people do not want Biden to seek another term. A YouGov poll conducted last month found that 64 percent of Americans don’t want him to run again.
On the other hand, there is growing evidence that the conservative base, while still holding a favorable view of Trump, would rather see someone else take up the mantle in 2024. The Politico-Morning Consult poll found that 52 percent said they would choose Trump as the presidential nominee. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second, with 21 percent choosing him as the nominee.
In a New York Times/Siena College Poll, almost half of Republican respondents indicated they would prefer a different nominee from Trump and indicated they would support other candidates in the primaries.
The former president was still the favorite in the poll, with 49 percent indicating they would back him. But about 44 percent indicated they would choose DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Vice President Mike Pence, or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
NEW NYT/Siena poll of GOP primary voters shows majority preferring Trump alternative as 24 nominee:
Trump 49
DeSantis 25
Cruz 7
Pence 6
Haley 6 https://t.co/4R0yiKfXZ9— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) July 12, 2022
It is no surprise that DeSantis leads the pack among potential candidates who are not Trump. But even he trails the former president by 24 points. “Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020,” according to the report.
This is not much of a surprise, considering that many favor DeSantis because he comes off as more politically savvy and less likely to become involved in the type of drama Trump did when he was in office. But others favor DeSantis because, unlike many other Republicans, he shares Trump’s willingness to go toe-to-toe with Democrats and their comrades in the activist media.
It is also worth noting, however, that Biden enjoys far less support among Democrats than Trump does among conservatives. If the former president decides to run again, he will still get the support that a DeSantis would get. Moreover, the country will have had nearly four years of Biden, which is the reason I always say the GOP could run a platypus in 2024 and still win. Indeed, even among those who aren’t crazy about Trump, they will be more willing to vote against Biden after seeing what the country looks like under his governance. All in all, regardless of who voters choose, it is clear the GOP still has the advantage going into the next presidential race.
