One poll does not make a race, but one that shows Trump up by 5 points in Ohio is not one that can easily be shrugged off easily. The poll does reveal the trouble Hillary Clinton is having in rust belt states with people who see her as your typical DC insider.
Here is some details on the Bloomberg poll:
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.
The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included.
The poll was taken Friday through Monday, as Clinton faced backlash for saying half of Trump supporters were a “basket of deplorables” and amid renewed concerns about her health after a video showed her stumbling as she left a Sept. 11 ceremony with what her campaign later said was a bout of pneumonia.
Trump’s performance in the poll—including strength among men, independents, and union households—is better than in other recent surveys of the state. It deals a blow to Clinton after she enjoyed polling advantages nationally and in most battleground states in August before the race tightened in September as more Republican voters unified around Trump.
Hillary really did have a bad week.
There is really good news in this poll for Senator Rob Portman in his race for re-election:
Another Republican, Senator Rob Portman, holds a commanding lead of 53 percent to 36 percent over former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland in the state’s U.S. Senate contest. The incumbent leads with a ratio of more than 2-to-1 among independents and is even getting 14 percent from Democrats and those who lean that way.
A sizable share of Ohio’s likely voters seem ready to vote a split ticket, the poll shows, with 20 percent of Clinton’s supporters also backing Portman. Just 9 percent of Trump supporters are backing Strickland.
If there is one area of concern, it is the ideological breakdown in the poll:
Party breakdown for the poll was 33 percent Republican, 29 percent Democrats, and 34 percent independents. Exit polling shows that Ohio’s electorate in the 2012 presidential election was 38 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent, while in 2004 it was 40 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 25 percent independent.
It is likely that Hillary supporters will leap on this to dismiss the poll. However, Ann Selzer’s firm, who conducted the poll, has an excellent track record and they see the electorate this year closer to the 2004 electorate as opposed to 2012.
One last nugget. That wall, Trump says he’ll say Mexico will pay for? People don’t believe it. 76% (52% of Republicans) think Trump will fail at getting Mexico to pay for it.