President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally at the Target Center, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Brad Parscale, the manager of the Trump campaign, is very data-driven and, following most rallies, he reports statistics about the attendees. I have posted about this after previous rallies. On average, 23% of rally goers identify as Democrats. For Toledo, OH, this number was 21.9%.
The really stunning stat from this rally, which Parscale has never reported on before, is that 20.9% of attendees identified as Independents.
This means that 42.8% of the 22,927 voters were either a Democrat or an Independent. And that is excellent news for President Trump.
Prior to the 2016 election, pollsters considered Ohio to “lean Republican.” Heading into Election Day, the Real Clear Politics polling average showed Trump ahead by 2.2 points. Trump won the state by 8.13 points.
Ohio is considered to be a bellwether state. Ohio has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1964. So, obviously, the state voted for Presidents Johnson, Carter, Clinton (twice) and Obama (twice). It is a purple state. Toledo itself is blue, but it’s surrounded by a sea of red. So where did all those Democrats come from? Some likely came from Michigan.
Parscale’s data shows that of the 22,927 voters at the rally, 18,210 were from Ohio. The city of Toledo lies on the Michigan border. So, the remaining 4,717 likely came from Michigan, a blue wall state.
Polling data leading up to the 2016 election showed Trump behind Clinton in Michigan by 5-7 points. He wound up winning the state by 10,704 votes out of a total of 4,548,382 cast, a razor-thin margin of .23%. However, to give you an idea of how blue the state is, Michigan’s 16 electoral votes have gone to the Democrat in the previous seven presidential elections. In 2012, Obama defeated Romney by a 9.5% margin.
On the night of the House impeachment vote last month, President Trump held a rally in Battle Creek, MI. Parscale reported that 17% of those who showed up for Trump were Democrats. That number is actually down slightly from his average of 23%, but in a state as blue as Michigan, it’s phenomenal.
It is very good news that Trump is drawing such large numbers of Democrats and Independents.
The other item Parscale reported was that 5,216 voters or nearly 23% of attendees did not bother to vote in 2016. Yet they showed up for a Trump rally. His rallies tend to draw many people who have voted once in the last four elections or some who have not voted at all in the last four elections. These people can almost be considered new voters.
Below, I have included Parscale’s previous posts showing the numbers for rallies in Toledo, OH, Battle Creek, MI, Broward, FL, Tupelo, MS, and Dallas, TX.
Big data from Toledo:
✅ 22,927 Voters Identified
✅ 18,210 Voters From Ohio
✅ 5,216 Registrants Didn't Vote in 2016
✅ 21.9% Democrats
✅ 20.9% Independents
Rallies = Winning Data! pic.twitter.com/FtYFkbzXbD
— Brad Parscale (@parscale) January 11, 2020
Incredible Rally tonight in Battle Creek Michigan!
✅ 20,202 voters identified (92.2% from MI)
✅ 15% haven’t voted in last four elections, WOW!
✅ 15% have voted in only one of the last four elections
✅ 17% Democrats
Dems play theater while @realDonaldTrump is winning!
— Brad Parscale (@parscale) December 19, 2019
Data from Broward Florida rally:
✅ 31,177 voters identified
✅ 19% voted once or less in last 4 elections (8% in zero)
✅ 24% Democrat
✅ 27% Hispanic
Incredible data from a county that is predominantly blue. Put Florida in the win column for 2020!
— Brad Parscale (@parscale) November 27, 2019
Data from Friday’s Mississippi rally:
✅ 16,432 voters identified
✅ 24% voted once or less in last 4 elections (12% in zero)
✅ 27% Democrat
✅ 20% Black
Continue to outperform 2016.
— Brad Parscale (@parscale) November 4, 2019
Incredible data from last night’s Dallas rally:
✅ 53,985 voters identified
✅ 12% have not voted in the last 4 elections
✅ 21.4% Democrat
✅ 11% Latino
We continue to outperform 2016.
— Brad Parscale (@parscale) October 18, 2019