Image is in the public domain and reproduced from page 45 of Human Factor Considerations of Undergrounds in Insurgencies, 25 January 2013, US Special Operations Command and modified by the author. Copyright 2020 by Townhall Media.
Previously in this series, I introduced a graphic that the U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) uses to explain the activities that buildup towards open guerrilla/civil war. Although the activities in the lower levels are not prerequisites for those in the higher ones, there is a definite relationship between the levels.
One of the relationships easily seen was the street violence and lack of support by political leaders, that led to some lack of confidence in the police as an institution. This, in turn, has sapped morale in some agencies to a point that their personnel departments cannot keep up with the spiking requests for retirement. We can easily see from this, that the activities at the various levels are mutually supporting, actually synergistic.
Now that we have explored some of the activities and their effects on other activities, let’s move on to another point of analysis, Cui Bono? Who benefits? This is especially important because as I mentioned previously, this isn’t your garden variety revolution with a single leader or even a group of leaders. Although it is possible that one or more of the scrawny pajama boys serving as cannon fodder, actually has visions of being the next El Che’. That’s about as reasonable as Governor Stacey Abrams.
So, back to who benefits. Specifically, which external actors will benefit the most. We’ll discuss internal elements following this piece. To be more accurate, we need to include those who believe they might benefit, even though they might not, or might not as much as they had hoped. We also need to understand that although multiple parties might benefit, that by no means implies that they all have the same objectives. The three major members in that particular category are all state actors with varying levels of overt hostility towards the United States. All three have dreams of hegemony over their area of the world and perhaps beyond. Iran, Russia, and China each have expressed to one degree or another their desire to acquire, or in the case of Russia, to reacquire control over territory not currently their own. Both China and Russia have made overt moves in that regard.
For the purposes of this discussion, we can safely table Iran, as its “reach” is limited; we have no formal diplomatic relations and hence little to no communications between us or our respective populations. In this particular arena, communications…messaging, is as — if not more — important a necessity than any kinetic activities being contemplated. Russia and China are a different story in the communications department.
Both of these countries have well established diplomatic relations with us and fairly free travel back and forth. Moreover, all three of us have mutual business relationships among the trio. This enables fairly free communications, if a bit easier from them to us than from us to them. Most importantly, they believe they benefit from the chaos they now perceive in the United States.
As I’ve discussed before, Putin’s objective was never about electing Trump. If anything, he preferred the criminal crone from Chappaqua. Putin’s real objective was to sow chaos, to undermine American faith in our electoral process. Remember the levels in the pyramid that referred to faith and trust in government and institutions? Elections that don’t smack of banana republics are an important American Institution that serves as a beacon of hope to folks worldwide.
Interestingly, what I assess is the biggest threat among all three actors, China, appears to be the most discrete. Possibly taking a page from Russia and its use of indirect bribes to the families of officials it wishes to influence, China gave Hunter Biden a pretty decent chunk of change while Joe Biden was Vice President. And…no matter how much mainstream media pundits keep pointing their fingers at Putin, Xi is far more dangerous…especially with Donald John Trump as President.
Xi is not only the de facto, but also due to a change in China’s constitution, the de jure President for life (although “life” at his level means as long as the politburo thinks you should live). He has to worry about feeding 1.4 BILLION people. President Trump is impacting his ability to do that. The President is resetting the one-sided relationship that essentially put the interests of China over those of U.S. workers. This is resulting in a move away from China as businesses worldwide begin to move their supply chains out of China and, as I’ve written previously, they won’t be coming back.
Xi has to be very concerned. Being an absolute dictator can be pretty neat…unless you are faced with a population of 1.4 billion people who blame you because they are hungry. That’s a formula for being displayed from a lamppost, or in the communist environment, being disappeared, even from historical photos. Of all the external actors who stand to benefit most from American internal chaos, Xi is certainly at the top of the heap. From his point of view, if President Trump is even minutely distracted from his directed and focused approach to U.S.-China trade, that’s a huge benefit to him.
Perceived chaos in the United States has another benefit to the above actors. That has to do with U.S. alliances. Like and respect them or not, European nations can help take the load off the United States when dealing with rogue nations such as Iran, or even bad actors who are more discrete such as China. Allied perception that we can’t keep things under control in our own country can impact their faith in our ability in overseas commitments. That enhances the bad actor trio’s perception that we might not have enough friends to enforce our will.
That, my friends, is a roll-up of the external actors who (I believe) believe they are benefiting from the chaos. Please understand, I have no evidence that either Xi or Putin is funding any of the bad actors currently rioting, looting burning, or assassinating their fellow Americans in the street. However, they are fellow travelers with those who are. They all benefit from the chaos. Next up, internal beneficiaries. Stay tuned.