President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House, Tuesday, April 7, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
This is the 21st in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States. As of 2359Z, the below charts reflect current U.S. Wuhan virus numbers.
Chart One’s data table shows Total Infections, Total Fatalities, and the Mortality Rate. The upper graph shows the number of NEW infections by date. Hopefully, this will give us a clear view of the infection trend line as more test materials make it into the field and into common use. Today’s number of New Infections is 28,640, which is 1,691 fewer than yesterday. The curve in New Infections is still flattening, which is great news.
The lower graph shows new U.S. Fatalities. Today, we added 1,924 to the total count of American deaths, raising that total to 12,795. This was 669 more than yesterday. This was a significant spike, mostly driven by New York and, to a lesser extent, New Jersey. More on that further down.
The second chart shows the U.S. Wuhan Virus Mortality rate. The Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) is now well over 3%.
This chart also contains a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 3.23%
+1 = 1.62%
+2 = 1.08%
+3 = 0.81%
Analysis: The numbers appear to be doing some weird things. New Infections appear to be leveling off somewhat while New Fatalities, driven mostly by New York and New Jersey, have taken an abrupt spike. The New York numbers are especially curious given that Governor Cuomo was recently speaking about hospital discharges now outnumbering admissions. There is some there, there. I’m just not sure what.
Note: As I got deeper into this, I realized that I probably should go find some folks smarter than I to help out. I recruited three guys who do this kind of thing in their sleep. They’ve helped me produce an interesting analysis that I’ll publish as an OPED tomorrow morning. Stay tuned….For some of my readers, this will likely be old news…to me, it was definitely an eye-opener.
The Red State Team hopes this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments. Please comment on the value of the “New Infections” chart. Please understand that, although I’d like to include many more charts, time constraints make this impractical. If there is a current chart that would be better replaced by another type, please holler.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.
Below is the screenshot of the Worldometers site, showing the “as of” timestamp for the data in this post.