President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Briefing Room, Wednesday, March 25, 2020, in Washington, as Vice President Mike Pence and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin listen. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
This is the 10th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
According to the “as of” time window of 2351-0016Z on the Worldometers site, the Mortality Rate maintains its “arithmetic” as opposed to “exponential” slope. The staff here is working thorough a number of options to pull the data closer to publication time, but we are limited by certain immovable constraints. As always, if data changes sufficiently enough to modify the overall conclusions, we will so state the following day. Our aim is to continue to be your reliable source of accurate, unbiased information in this regard.
As of 2351-0016Z (Worldometers site) March 27, 2020 the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.57%, a slight uptick from yesterday.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update showing total reported U.S. Cases and Total U.S. Fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends until it’s determined to be no longer useful to our readers.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows a slight uptick of the M/R from yesterday’s reports.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. today’s numbers show a slight bend to the left indicating 44 more fatalities than yesterday. This number will undoubtably be revised by Worldometers as they have for several nights running. If as usual, Worldometers updates their fatally numbers, we will update this report.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.57%
+1 = 0.78%
+2 = 0.52%
+3 = 0.39%
Despite some numbers moving in an undesired direction, there are two positive things to consider: 1) The slope of the Fatalities line remains “arithmetic” as opposed to “exponential” and 2) Given the large number of infections that have yet to be officially counted via an actual test, the likely Mortality Rate remains below 0.3%
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.