President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Briefing Room, Thursday, March 26, 2020, in Washington, as Vice President Mike Pence listens. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
This is the 10th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
The trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities compared to total infections has edged slightly downwards, moving from 1.51 yesterday and settling at 1.41% today (Yesterday’s rate was revised upwards due to Worldometers changing their numbers AFTER 0000Z last night). As of 0000GMT (Worldometers site), March 26, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.41%.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update showing total reported U.S. Cases and Total U.S. Fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends until it’s determined to be no longer useful to our readers.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows a slight downtick (1/10%) of the M/R from yesterday’s report. My assessment is that the M/R will again continue its downward path until test materials and equipment are fully fielded and the supply chain is well established, fully supportive of demand from the field. At that point, the calculated M/R will reflect fairly close to what it actually has been all along.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Today’s numbers show a slight bend to the right indicating 65 fewer deaths than yesterday‘S 247. Hopefully, this is a precursor to better numbers to follow…but no promises yet. As I’ve continued to note, one — or even two — days does not make a trend.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.41%
+1 = 0.72%
+2 = 0.48%
+3 = 0.36%
If you believe that there is a good chance that for each known person infected, there are 3 others out there who haven’t been reported, then the United States Wuhan Virus is now approaching the same CDC claimed M/R for our seasonal Flu, albeit with some wobble in the trend line.
We hope this report is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.