President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing with the coronavirus task force, at the White House, Tuesday, March 17, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
This is the 6th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
The trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities compared to total infections, continues to be grounds for cautious optimism. As of 2359 GMT, March 21, 2020 the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.27%. This number has been steadily declining since March 3, when the rate was over 7%.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update showing total reported U.S. Cases and Total U.S. Fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends until it’s determined to be no longer useful to our readers.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows a slight uptick (2/100%) of the M/R from previous reports. My assessment is that the M/R will continue its downward path until test materials and equipment are fully fielded and the supply chain is well established and fully supportive of demand from the field. At that point the calculated M/R will reflect what it actually has been all along.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Today’s numbers are somewhat concerning. Instead of continuing to edge to the right, the Fatalities line moved sharply back to the left with new additional deaths of 114. Whether this is indeed a harbinger of worse to come, merely a spike or just the Fatality count lagging behind the count of newly discovered cases has yet to be determined. As I noted when there was “good news,” one or even two days, does not make a trend.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.27%
+1 = 0.63%
+2 = 0.42%
+3 = 0.32%
If you believe that there is a good chance that for each known person infected, there are 3 others out there who haven’t been reported, then the United States Wuhan Virus is now approaching the same CDC claimed M/R for our seasonal Flu. All of this could change in a nanosecond, but for now, once again, cautiously optimistic.
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.