The statewide races in Arizona are tight right now, and it’s too early to make any projections.

Republicans were feeling discouraged last night as Democrats led in statewide races, and they still continue to lead. However, the lead for some candidates has shrunk drastically, particularly in the governor’s race.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Hobbs is leading with 50.3 percent, whereas Lake is at 49.6 percent, which is roughly 12,000 ballots. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is at 51.4 percent, and Masters is at 46.4 percent, which is a difference of around 90,000 votes. While I’m explaining the technical side of this, RedState reported earlier this afternoon on what these numbers mean for Republicans.

The next major race update will come in around 9 p.m. Eastern Time, or 7 p.m. Arizona time. This is because Maricopa County will be doing its next results posting at this time, and as the largest county, they will likely determine the outcome of these races.

As ABC15 Arizona’s Garrett Archer reported, there are an estimated 465,505 non-provisional ballots left to be counted. About 428,000 of those ballots are from Maricopa County.

Note: this is NOT a complete list. I'm only reporting CONFIRMED outstanding ballots.

All 15 counties have outstanding ballots at this time.

— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 9, 2022

•We have ~86K early ballots processed from late last week and ready to tabulate
•We have ~50K early ballots dropped off Monday & 17K from secure slots (box 3) on Election Day that need to be processed

~1.1 million ballots already reported. New batch of results tonight 2/2

— Maricopa County (@maricopacounty) November 9, 2022

In terms of in-person Election Day ballots cast, these are expected to break toward Republicans, it’s just a matter of how heavily.

.@katiehobbs still leads @KariLake but by a very narrow margin, 11,726 votes, or .6%.

Things have been moving in Lake's direction and the remaining ballots are expected to favor Republicans.

— Jeremy Duda (@jeremyduda) November 9, 2022

In addition, about 17,000 ballots were placed in “Box 3,” which is what was used at the vote centers when they ran into technical issues on Tuesday, as RedState reported.

In other words: Be patient. This race will likely continue to get tighter, and we may not have a projection until Thursday or Friday night.

Update: Per ABC15, new results are expected around 6:00 pm (Arizona time).

BREAKING: Maricopa Co. expects to drop new election results around 6pm tonight (mainly early ballot votes)

— Nicole Grigg (@NicoleSGrigg) November 9, 2022