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Why Immigration Failed to Dominate the 2024 Irish Election

AP Photo/Peter Morrisson

On Thursday, Elon Musk, riding high after his pivotal role in helping President-elect Donald Trump win in the U.S., turned his attention to a foreign election, posting on X, "The people of Ireland will vote for freedom."

However, the once high-profile issue of immigration failed to deliver the election results many, including Musk, had anticipated. Just over one year ago, fiery images from riots in Dublin brought the topic of immigration to the forefront, yet it did not become a central theme in the election.  

In stark contrast to Ireland's outcomes, immigration played a much more prominent role in the 2024 US presidential election. For President-elect Trump, the issue of immigration remained a critical element of his political platform, with calls for stricter border security and mass deportations. 

In a political landscape marked by growing unrest, Ireland's voters have set the stage for the continuation of the grand coalition government, dominated by political parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.  While the vote count remained razor-thin, it seems the two dominant center-right parties have secured just enough support to enter coalition talks. However, the final makeup of the government could take weeks to finalize. Sinn Féin, the Irish nationalist party, appeared poised to fall just short, prolonging its wait for a chance at power, now facing another five years in opposition.

The Dublin Riots 

On November 23, 2023, a knife attack outside a primary school in Dublin left one adult and three children, aged five to six, injured. The attacker was quickly rumored to be an Algerian immigrant, a claim that later proved accurate, though he had been in the country for decades before the violent incident.

By 5 p.m., a crowd had gathered at the top of O'Connell Street, near the scene of the attack, with some people waving Irish flags or holding signs that read "Irish Lives Matter." The riots that followed highlighted the sharp rise in anti-immigration sentiment across Ireland in 2023, particularly the influx of refugees from Ukraine. These demonstrations captured global attention, as fiery images of the capital city and clashes between police and protesters flooded the media.

Yet, as the election approached, the issue of immigration failed to gain the traction many had expected. Political leaders and analysts pointed to several key factors that contributed to the issue's diminished role in the election discourse.


Read More:

Nighttime Riots in the Streets of Dublin After Man Rumored to Be Algerian Immigrant Stabs Three Children


The 'Heat' Was Taken Out of the Issue

One key reason immigration didn’t dominate the election, according to political analysts, was that the “heat” surrounding the issue had been reduced. While the Dublin riots were shocking, they were viewed by many as isolated incidents, amplified by their location in the heart of the capital.


The cooling of the immigration debate can also be attributed to efforts by An Garda Síochána, the Irish police force, which has actively worked to monitor and suppress what it deems "far-right extremist groups," particularly those gaining traction on online platforms like Telegram. In response to the riots, the government initially proposed a "hate speech law," but later backtracked due to a lack of consensus. Musk, owner of X, offered to fund any legal challenges to the legislation should it pass.

Decrease in Asylum Seeker Numbers and Reduced Refugee Benefits

Another factor that alleviated some of the pressure surrounding immigration was a reduction in the number of asylum seekers arriving in Ireland. Early in the year, predictions had suggested that Ireland might see a significant surge in international protection applicants. However, those predictions did not materialize as expected. Furthermore, the Irish government implemented tighter controls on immigration, including closer monitoring of ports and borders, which helped slow the influx of new arrivals.

There was also a significant reduction in the benefits provided to Ukrainian refugees, which lessened some of the strain on the system that had been causing public concern. While many Irish citizens had voiced opposition to the level of support given to refugees, especially those coming from Ukraine, these measures helped to quell some of the discontent and prevent it from becoming a focal point in the election.

The Campaign Focused on Housing and the Cost of Living

As Ireland approached the 2024 election, the focus was on domestic issues, particularly the cost of living and housing affordability. With rents and property prices soaring, these concerns were top of mind for voters, especially young people and families. Political parties tailored their campaigns to address these pressing issues, avoiding divisive debates on immigration that could alienate key constituencies.

However, beneath the surface of this political stability, Ireland’s ongoing immigration debate simmers. While the recent election results suggest a preference for continuity and stability, the undercurrents of rising discontent over immigration and national identity cannot be ignored. As the country grapples with these tensions, it remains to be seen whether the current political establishment can maintain control or whether growing frustration will ignite a more profound shift in policy in the future.


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