When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) decided to start a war over redistricting, he did so without considering any of the unintended consequences.
After Texas drew a congressional map that is still less gerrymandered than those in California, Illinois, and elsewhere, Democrats had a chance to de-escalate and accept that they don't get to live by their own set of rules. Republicans would have gained a few pick-up opportunities in 2026, but the landscape wouldn't have changed dramatically. Newsom wants to run for president, though, and that meant he had to get his face in the news.
So he touched off an arms race and now spends his days posting in all caps while moving ahead with a plan to take California's already ridiculous maps well past the point of absurdity. The thing is, when you start an arms race, you'd better be sure you can outproduce your competition. That's where things are quickly going off the rails for Newsom and his party.
According to President Donald Trump, Missouri is now moving to redistrict, and they are one of several red states expected to join the party.
All Newsom’s bluster has done is start a war Democrats cant win.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) August 21, 2025
So congrats to him. pic.twitter.com/GQQ118FbLw
A special session to make a 7-1 map in favor of Republicans seems imminent, and with the White House behind the push, it's going to be very difficult for more moderate GOP members of the state legislature to stand in the way. And while you might think, "It's just one seat," all of these moves add up. Texas has added five GOP-leaning seats with its new map. California wanted to match that, but even its new map will likely only yield a four-seat pickup. With Missouri joining the fight, Republicans will finish ahead of Democrats.
But what if Illinois and New York jump in? Well, for starters, Illinois was already gerrymandered to the max after the 2020 census, giving Republicans only three of its 17 seats. At some point, you can't move the lines anymore without giving up ground.
As for New York, there are legal hurdles in the way, and let's not forget that California is facing those as well. Newsom still has to get around his own state laws regarding redistricting only once a decade and its constitutionally-mandated "independent commission."
SEE: Gavin Newsom Gets Terrible News About His Plan to Redistrict, After His Very Public Meltdown
Even if they succeed, though, other red states are standing by to offset those moves. That includes Florida, which went through a contentious redistricting battle last go around, with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) having to go nuclear on his own party to ensure his state got a favorable map for Republicans. If Newsom doesn't think DeSantis will go even further this time around, I've got some news for him.
Long story short, Republicans have more options to gerrymander across the country than Democrats do, which is why this war is such a loser for them. It may get them backslaps on CNN, but when the dust settles, the GOP will end up with more pickup opportunities than each side began with. Democrats are going to wish they had just let it end with Texas.
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