The deal was real. After much denial that a number of concessions were being worked out between Kevin McCarthy and a group of Republicans opposing his rise to Speaker of the House, it’s clear those reports were accurate.

As the 12th ballot took place on Friday, a huge shift occurred, with Chip Roy and others flipping their votes to support McCarthy, putting the tally at 214 for the presumptive Speaker. With Ken Buck absent, only three more votes need to be flipped to settle the matter.

Dan Bishop
Josh Brecheen
Michael Cloud
Andrew Clyde
Byron Donalds
Anna Paulina Luna
Ralph Norman
Scott Perry
Mary Miller
Paul Gosar
Chip Roy
Andy Ogles

These congressmen and women are close to delivering the most conservative congress in history. Thats a big deal!

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) January 6, 2023

Kevin McCarthy has 214 votes. He needs 218 but Ken Buck is gone so he only needs to flip 3 of the holdouts and then this is over!

— Electionalysis (@electionalysis) January 6, 2023

There are few congressional members I trust more than Chip Roy and because of that, I tend to trust that he extracted the necessary pound of flesh here. The one-member motion to vacate is apparently a done deal and is a big check on McCarthy’s power. There are also concessions reportedly being given in regard to committee assignments and the coming Church Commission to investigate FBI/CIA interference in US elections.

Some people still aren’t happy with that outcome, and Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, and Andy Biggs will likely never budge. That leaves a handful of other members from the holdout group who will decide this thing down the stretch, and with that in mind, I think there are exactly two outcomes possible now. Either McCarthy becomes Speaker with a boatload of concessions locked in for the conservatives or enough Democrats get bored, stop showing up, and McCarthy becomes Speaker because of the lowered threshold.

How one will feel about this development will depend on one’s goals. Is burning it all down the point or is the point to get McCarthy to fall in line and empower conservatives in the caucus? I’m not saying one view is “right” or “wrong,” but they are distinctly different goals, and that’s the split happening now. In the end, I think Roy’s strategy is the best path because it offers the most return for conservatives, but we’ll see how things develop from here.