If there was some feeling over the last couple of weeks that Donald Trump was moving in the right direction electorally, we now have more empirical evidence to back that up.

ABC News has released their latest state polling and the President has now taken the lead in two key states, pointing to a race that is tightening and moving in Trump’s direction as Joe Biden continues to hide in his basement most days.

Biden still leads Trump with support among registered hispanic voters in the states — a voting group w/ a diversity of opinions.

In Florida, his 13-point lead trails the 27 point lead @HillaryClinton had in 2016

In Arizona, Biden leads 61%-34% among Hispanic registered voters

— Molly Nagle (@MollyNagle3) September 23, 2020

There’s obviously a lot of moving parts when it comes to an election ultimately decided by the electoral college. The response from Democrats to this will be that Biden doesn’t need Florida and Arizona. Yet, that eschews how connected everything ultimately is. If Trump wins Florida by 3 points, he’s going to be a clear favorite to snag one or two of the former “blue wall” states he took from Hillary in 2016. There’s not much of a scenario where Trump wins with that margin in Florida but can’t pull Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

Arizona was also a state Democrats were really banking on to cement a Biden victory. It has been trending blue for a while. But if Trump is able to hold on there again, it’s a very good sign for possible shifts happening elsewhere.

Another thing to note here is that Trump is far outpacing Joe Biden with Hispanic voters compared to Hillary Clinton. We’ve seen hints of that in other polls and this newest offering undergirds that notion. If Trump over-performs 2016 with Hispanics by 5-10 points, that could swing the election in his favor. We are also seeing reports of sky-high voter registration among non-college-educated whites in the midwest. That’s a demographic that heavily favors Trump. In other words, there are a lot of factors lining up here for a photo finish, and all of the recent news is bad news for Biden.

I’ll note that the former VP has been calling lids (i.e. no more press access) on his campaign early in the morning a lot lately. It sure seems like his handlers are having to keep him inside because he’s having good and bad days mentally. There’s little other explanation for a presidential candidate who refuses to campaign, and when he does, he often shows up hours late. Something is going on the voters deserve to know about it. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris hasn’t answered questions in 42 days of being the VP nominee for Biden. That’s incredibly unusual.

Biden is floundering right now, and while I suspect Democrats have plenty to unleash in October, Trump has made up most of the ground he needed to make up to be competitive in November. Now, he just needs to remain disciplined, which he’s done a great job of lately, and finish this out. Biden’s playing prevent-defense against a top offense. That doesn’t usually work out well.

(Please follow me on Twitter! @bonchieredstate)