Well, we know one big topic that will be a focus of President Trump’s State of the Union address Tuesday night: affordability. He just got some good news on the front Monday, and I will bet you five (imaginary) bucks that he brings it up.
We’re talking about mortgage rates, and they hit the lowest they’ve been in four years:
One year ago, President Trump promised to make Housing Affordable.
— Scott Turner (@SecretaryTurner) February 23, 2026
One year later, interest rates drop below 6% for the first time in four years. https://t.co/SdijSIdM7q
After hitting a recent high of 7.79% under Biden in October 2023, they’re now below six percent, according to Mortgage News Daily:
The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond buying plans were announced.
Much like the last time, there's always a risk that something happens to prompt a bond market reversal today. If that happens, mortgage lenders could raise rates in the middle of the day.
But unlike last time, mortgage rates have eased down to current levels in a much more gradual and--dare we say--sustainable way. After all, today's improvement is only a moderate 0.05% vs Friday. Back on January 9th, the initial day-over-day jump was more than 0.20%.
The administration had already seen some milestones in the mortgage rate and in the economy:
Economic Victory: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Should Fuel New Housing Revival
The Latest Job Reports Is Good News for the Trump Administration's Affordability Messaging
According to economists, the rate has a good chance of staying under six percent, and may even drop further:
While rates briefly dipped into the 5% range for a few hours in January, they bounced back that same day. That is unlikely this time around, according to Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
“This visit to the high 5′s looks more sustainable on paper,” Graham said. “As long as the broader bond market doesn’t sell-off in any major way, mortgage rates stand a better chance of remaining closer to present levels than they did last time. And if the broader bond market improves further (i.e. 10yr yields dipping under 4.0%), mortgage rates would likely make incremental gains.”
There’s still a long way to go, but it’s far better than the dog days of 2023:
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 22, 2026
1970s: 8.9%
1980s: 12.7%
1990s: 8.1%
2000s: 6.3%
2010s: 4.1%
2020s: 5.3%
---
All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65%
2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79%
Today's Rate: 6.01% (lowest since Sep 2022) pic.twitter.com/rK4ykRx9RW
We might see an avalanche of folks taking advantage and refinancing their homes:
The drop in rates will likely incite more refinancing, which has been surging over the last several weeks. Applications to refinance a home loan are about 130% higher than they were a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Affordability is a key concern of the American voter, and although it can’t be solved overnight after Bidenflation, there are some encouraging signs out there. Expect Trump to emphasize that tonight.
Speaking of the State of the Union, RedState will be liveblogging the entire thing, so mark your calendars right now and be sure to join us. The fun will kick off shortly before 9:00 p.m. ET.
Editor's Note: With President Trump back in the White House, the state of our Union is strong once again.
Support RedState’s coverage of the president's State of the Union Address and help us report the truth the radical Left doesn't want you to hear. Join RedState VIP and use promo code POTUS47 to get 74% off your VIP membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member