A month ago, following his debate against Democrat appointee nominee Kamala Harris, Donald Trump fell behind the vice president by four points among likely voters—49 to 45 percent—in a September Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The times they are a-changin'.
In their latest poll, Yahoo/YouGov has the two in a dead heat at 47 percent each among likely voters. That’s a pretty big swing:
YouGov is a reliably biased and oversampled Democrat poll…. Yikes. pic.twitter.com/f3diyHzN2K
— Dr. G. Russian Bot (@overitall69) October 7, 2024
Kamala had a brief honeymoon after her unexpectedly not terrible debate performance against the former president in September, but that bump clearly seems to have run its course. Since that debate, Trump’s running mate took on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and wiped the floor with him, adding a momentum boost to the ticket. Meanwhile, Kamala has failed to impress in the few interviews she gives, and her meaningless word salads have become internet comedy gold.
Related: NEW POLL: Kamala Harris Won the Debate—yet It's Trump Who Gained a Point in Voter Support
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The party might be over for the "Weird Ticket":
The #KamalaKollapse is real. It's pretty bad when a Democrat loses 4 points on YOUGOV. pic.twitter.com/58KP3p3Eom
— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) October 7, 2024
Other numbers in the poll show that the more the public gets to know Kamala Harris, the more they don’t like her:
Two other numbers suggest that this pattern reflects real (if modest) movement in the presidential race.
First of all, Harris’s favorable rating ticked up from 47% in August to 49% after the September presidential debate; today, it has slipped back down to 46%. Harris’s unfavorable rating, meanwhile, has climbed to 49%.
But wait, there's more! Other numbers weren't so good for Harris either:
Just over a quarter of Americans (27%) say the US is heading in the right direction, while 60% say the country is on the wrong track...
However, Harris’ job approval rating was underwater by nine percentage points (41% approve, 50% disapprove), while Trump almost broke even in assessments of his four years in office (47% approve, 48% disapprove).
As we always say, polls are just polls, and there’s only one that matters—and that’s on November 5. That being said, it’s important to note that polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump’s support; if they’re wrong on that kind of scale again, expect a yuge Trump victory.
YouGov had Biden up +10 in 2020 pic.twitter.com/wLax597Frs
— Wolf White (@HvitaUlfrinn) October 7, 2024
But hey, Kamala can always go on more sex podcasts and late-night comedy shows to improve her chances:
If it's YouGov, based on their dubious polling history, this really means Trump +4 or +5 ***in the popular vote***
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 7, 2024
No worries for the Harris-Walz camp. Appearing on Colbert, Kimmel and with Howard will surely move the needle, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin https://t.co/nK85ihur42
It’s a long way out from when the Fat Lady sings, but if I were on Team Kamala, I’d be wiping the sweat off my brow about now. There just seems to be an awful lot of signs that voters have heard enough cackling and gibberish and want an actual leader.
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