The 2024 Presidential election, if nothing else, is shaping up to be one of the most interesting ones to watch. It is a pretty safe bet that there will be a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but there is also a good swath of Americans who would like to channel their inner Nevadan and choose "none of these candidates" if the race comes down to Trump and Biden. But the Biden campaign's biggest worry seems to be the influx of possible third-party candidates — so much so that they are beefing things up to deal with those perceived threats.
Democrats don't want 3rd-party candidates https://t.co/3UnQB1mDG7
— Georgia Log Cabin (@GeorgiaLogCabin) January 30, 2024
In January, the Democrat National Committee (DNC) brought on a new communications advisor, and groups outside the DNC who are working to get Joe Biden reelected have been in discussions about a possible whole new group whose job it would be to coordinate those third-party candidates the campaign views as a threat. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows that, in a hypothetical general election with all declared candidates in the mix, Biden comes in at 39 percent, Trump at 37 percent, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. at 14 percent, Cornel West at three percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at two percent. Add to that, there is the upstart "No Labels" group possibly waiting in the wings who could offer up candidates like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. There is also the fact that Kennedy is trying to establish the "We The People" Party but has also expressed interest in running as a Libertarian. The latter would undoubtedly be an attractive prospect for many Americans disenchanted with both major political parties.
So, what might the Biden campaign be so afraid of? Both the Trump and Biden campaigns believe that third-party candidates hurt the other guy, not their guy. Supporters of both West and Stein would more than likely be traditional Democrat voters. West, who is trying to form the "Justice For All" party, would lure black voters away from Biden. Along with Kennedy, West got 13 percent of the black vote in the Quinnipiac hypothetical five-way race. That is a multiple-alarm fire for Democrats, who have seen support for Joe Biden among black voters decrease by 20 percent in the last three years. West was a supporter of Bernie Sanders' campaigns and is pro-Palestinian. He said of Biden and his support of Israel, “It will be difficult for him to talk about redeeming the soul of the nation when he is enabling genocide." Jill Stein would like to expand the appeal of the Green Party and could do so by attracting left-leaning environmentalists who don't feel like Joe Biden has done enough on climate change.
Blue Team fearmongering about “third party” candidates raises an obvious question:
— Bret Weinstein (@BretWeinstein) February 6, 2024
If DNC Democrats fear Trump that much, why are they running a decrepit loyalist who inspires no one?
Answer: because corruption is their prime directive, and fear of Trump is their only argument. https://t.co/npqjXivIIv
It seems that Kennedy and West are causing the most angst among Democrats. Both say they will be announcing running mates soon, but it is Kennedy who is in a unique position. The Biden campaign is trying to position Kennedy as a kind of "Trump-lite." They point to his agreement with Trump on things like vaccine mandates, border security, and funding for Ukraine. Lis Smith is one of those hired by the DNC to address the third-party threat. She stated,
“It’s clear that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is being propped up and funded by Donald Trump and his allies because they believe that he is a useful stalking horse who could throw the election Trump’s way. We need to sound that alarm every day between now and the election.”
Donald Trump Jr. has called Kennedy “a radical liberal" and “a great alternative as a Democrat."
Other groups focused on fending off any third-party threats to Joe Biden are Democrat opposition research group American Bridge, which is reassigning staff to hone in on third-party candidates. Another group called Third Way is discouraging support for No Labels. Citizens to Save Our Republic is run by former House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-MO) and has on its website the "No Spoiler" pledge for third-party candidates, stating they will drop out of the race in six swing states if, by July 1, they have not qualified in enough other states to win the electoral college, and have not been polling competitively.
Ari Rabin-Havt was a strategist for Bernie Sanders' 2016 and 2020 campaigns and had this to say about 2024 third-party candidates,
“The question is no longer people choosing between Trump and Biden. The question is, ‘Do I vote for Trump, do I vote for Biden or do I not show up for all?’ And I think with the volume and intensity of third parties, Democrats can’t rely on the notion that voters will come home in October.”
With third-party candidates combined attracting one in five voters, and Joe Biden's poll numbers underwater on every issue, Democrats have plenty to be nervous and scared about.
Today I joined Dick Gephart & @stuartpstevens in calling on 3rd party and independent candidates for President to #SignThePledge to get off the ballot in swing states under specific circumstances. They can still get their message out or raise money, but don’t be a #Spoiler4Trump. pic.twitter.com/SIJBTSzkjQ
— Doug Jones (@DougJones) February 6, 2024
