When I arrived home not long ago after a grocery-shopping expedition about 10 miles away, I sat down at my desk to work. But something felt strange.
It felt strange because I did not sense the bulge of a wallet in my rear pocket. Holy Smokes!
My driver’s license, credit and insurance cards, plus maybe $40 were inside that chunk of leather. Sick, sick feeling having to replace all that. Where was it?
Immediately, I phoned the manager of the local chain grocery store. “It’s right here in my drawer,” he said as if, of course. A subsequent shopper had found the forgotten wallet in a shopping cart and turned it in.
Nothing was touched in the wallet. In fact, they hadn’t even opened it to see whose it was, trusting that the owner would come looking.
I don’t know if that kind of trust would occur in every small American town today, even in the South. But I suspect it would in many.
Not in big urban areas, of course, where the sheer scale of population often grants anonymity to misbehaving members, who can simply melt into crowds.
I was in the cashier’s line at a New York City deli one morning when the man in front of me put a $5 bill down for his coffee. In a flash, another hand reached in, grabbed the note, and fled out the door. No one even looked after him. Kind of expected there. Too dangerous? And too normal.
That got me thinking about trust in today’s divided society. It feels frayed to me. Perhaps you too.
Why is that?
Gallup did one of its massive national surveys this summer and found trust and confidence in major American institutions was at an historic low.
Currently, the average of Americans’ confidence in 14 major institutions (“a great deal” or “quite a lot”) is only 27 percent.
Trust in some institutions, like organized labor and banks, has not declined as much as others. In some, however, it has cratered.
In the 33 years since 1993, the high point of trust in TV news was 46 percent; now, it’s 14. Trust in newspapers back then was 37 percent, today 17.
The presidency was 58 percent, now 27; Supreme Court 50 down to 27. Congress from 30 down to nine now; police 64 to 45.
Not surprisingly, confidence in the volunteer military remains the highest, though its trust level has slipped too, from 82 to 61 percent.
Another survey found varying trust in various federal government duties:
Forty-five percent of U.S. adults have a great deal or fair amount of trust in the federal government to handle international problems, and only 38% trust the government to handle domestic problems.
Trust in the three branches of the federal government ranges from 32% for the legislative branch to 49% for the judicial branch.
Two decades ago, all five measures showed trust above the majority level, and as recently as 2012, majorities trusted all but the legislative branch.
A national poll for the nation’s 250th birthday by Marquette Law School found only 18 percent trust the federal government to do what is right all or most of the time. Six in 10 (63 percent) trust it some of the time, while 19 percent never trust it.
The Big Question after 250 years: Can our democracy continue to function effectively long-term, or even at all, if we continue taking it for granted and fewer and fewer members trust each other or its basic institutions?
Does every decision that goes against your preference have to be due to a conspiracy? Does every effort to do something or help others inevitably lead to vast corruption, as it sometimes seems?
Does every media delivering information distort their reports because they have sold out to one side or the other? And how can we ever craft an operating national consensus if every "fact" is dubious?
So I wondered, what’s going on here? Sifting the numbers provides some clues.
While confidence in major institutions has been trending downward for decades, more recently it’s done so in spurts. For instance, the 2008 recession and the ineffective response of the Obama-Biden administration produced a trust drop. The serial emergence of financial scandals and corruption no doubt played a role.
But the major effect in the last decade is tied to the now familiar, even infamous, partisan divide. Forget facts, Americans’ confidence in major institutions depends these days on which political party and politicians are in charge at the moment.
While trust in small business and banks is close among Republicans, Independents, and Democrats, Gallup’s July poll found vast gaps among those three voting groups in other areas.
How much confidence do you have in the military? Republicans 88 percent, Democrats less than half that (42 percent). Higher education: GOP 23 percent, Democrats 50.
Trust in Congress currently with slim, if often ineffective, GOP control: Republicans 14, Democrats 5. Police: GOP 75, Dems 30.
Democrats place more trust in media (22 percent for newspapers, 16 for TV news) than the GOP (10 for papers, six for TV news). The Supreme Court, with its conservative majority, has 52 percent GOP trust, 12 among Democrats.
Organized religion: 57 percent Republican, 17 Democrat.
And perhaps most revealing, current trust in the presidency is 74 percent among Republicans, four percent among Democrats.
Look for those numbers to flip if Democrats somehow get their way in 2028. Polls this far out are largely based on name recognition. Please Lord!
The RealClear Politics poll collection on Democrats for the 2028 nomination puts Kamala Harris far in the lead with 38 percent. Based on what, I wonder? Her explanation of the cloud or nonexistent record of accomplishments, beyond gender and race?
Gavin Newsom, whose leadership of California has prompted millions to flee the state, is trailing with 17 percent. He is followed by ex-bartender and Democratic Socialist member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12. And then, there's former mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11.
Forget about trusting the Swamp. Do Americans trust their local neighbors – or even know them?
Last year, the Pew Research Center reported that despite the large distances often involved, America’s rural residents, especially the older ones, are more likely to know and trust their neighbors than city neighbors who might share an apartment hall or wall.
Pew also found that the percentage of Americans who know, trust, and interact with neighbors is declining.
Urban Democrats appear more inclined to live or seek to live among those with the same political views, three times more likely than Republicans.
Studies and polls have found that city, suburban, and rural residents collectively are spending less time with neighbors and more time at home.
This trend began around 2012 and grew exponentially with the government-fed fears and forced isolation of COVID, prompting many to shift their social interactions online permanently, even among people who are physical neighbors or texting within the same family home.
