A Blue Wave or a 'Red Undertow'?

CBS News recently reported, “Democrats would have an 11-seat House majority if the midterm elections were held today.” Their CBS/YouGov generic congressional ballot is at 54 percent Democrat to 45 percent Republican. The poll has President Trump’s disapproval at 61 percent versus 39 percent approval. The CBS House Battleground tracker estimates the Democrats could pick up a 229-206 House majority. 

CBS, which usually has a left-wing bias, is not alone in its estimates. The Cook Report, which also has a Democrat-lean, says the "current possible outcome" is that the Democrats could pick up 5-15 seats, resulting in a Democrat majority with 220-230 seats. Scott Rasmussen and RMG, who may be considered more conservative, have the Democrats up 215-205, with the remaining 15 seats as toss-ups. Inside Elections has it at 210-209 (and 16 toss-ups), with an edge for the GOP!

All of this must be a big letdown for the Democrats. They have been predicting a “blue wave” since 2025, and they finally have the public polling that should produce it, yet now estimates predict that it will only result in a bare Democrat House majority. As the Cook Report states, the “blue wave” has turned into a “red undertow.” 

Sad!

But this should not be surprising to people who have paid attention. If the odds were always against the GOP holding on to the House, they were also always against the Democrats winning a large House majority.

In the House of Representatives, the GOP currently has a 218-plus-one (nominal independent) majority, versus 214 Democrats, with two vacancies. In this cycle, the GOP benefited from its minimal exposure in the House boom-and-bust cycle. In the House, the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties. In 2018, the Democrats won 41 seats in the House, capturing the chamber, but then lost 14 seats in 2020 and another 9 seats in 2022, with the GOP winning control the latter year. The Republicans then lost two seats in the 2024 elections. 

The 2026 GOP "strategery" to protect-if-not-grow its majority was pretty good. The GOP solidified itself with gerrymandering, which probably means that the Democrats need a generic lead of 4.9 percent just to win the majority in 2026. The Republicans also raised "yuge" amounts of cash and are now outspending Democrats by a margin of $172.5 million to $156.8 million. This is a big reversal from earlier election cycles where the Democrats almost always outspend the Republicans.  

The one area that did not work out well for the GOP was with the national polling. President Trump’s RealClearPolitics approval average is down to 38.2 percent, with 60.2 percent disapproving. The congressional generic vote has also gotten much worse – now the Democrats have an 8.5-point margin, 51.2 percent to 42.7 percent. This public polling is in “blue wave” territory. 

Of course, all this public polling has a bias towards the Democrats, thanks largely to the likely over-sampling of leftist voters, and the under-sampling of right-wing voters. In 2024, this same CBS/YouGov poll was Harris plus four over Trump, a Democrat bias of six percent. In 2026, the poll may be doing this again, over-sampling “under 45 voters as 37% of the midterm electorate,” which is “high by like 4%.” Interestingly, the CBS/YouGov poll also reveals that Hispanic support for the GOP has gone down from 2024 but is still far above its levels from the “blue wave” of 2018. 

Then there is the campaign polling. One of my “little birdies” in a House battleground district has “chirped” that the GOP team is only down about five points compared to where they were in 2024. If replicated nationally, this percentage would result in the barest of Democrat House majorities. And the president has posted on Truth Social that his McLaughlin campaign polling has had his job approval consistently between 47 and 50 percent every month since November 2025. Neither of these signals a “blue wave” swing for the Democrats.

And finally, there is the concerning stat for the Democrats that the U.S. is experiencing a huge drop in mail-in voting nationwide, especially in Democrat-leaning areas. This is not a good sign of strong Democrat turnout. 

But I guess “We’ll (Just Have to) See What Happens.”

Now for another check-in for some competitive House districts:

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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