President Trump has said he wants the GOP to win another 100 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. This has rarely happened before — “(o)nly twice has one party picked up 100 plus seats – in 1894, when the out-party GOP won because of the Panic of 1893, and in 1932, when the out-party Democrats won because of the Great Depression.”
One other thing of note about both elections is that each occurred during the process of a political realignment.
And there is little question today that since the 2016 election, the U.S. has been going through another political realignment. A political realignment occurs when there is a fundamental transformation within a nation’s political landscape, usually over several elections, which signifies a profound and enduring shift in voter allegiances, party systems, and the dominant issues shaping political discourse. The idea of realignments was first explored by prominent political scientists V.O. Key Jr. and Walter Dean Burnham.
Generally, it is thought that realignments occur every thirty-plus years, as the voting population slowly changes, with older voters dying off and being replaced with new voters.
The 2016 - 2024 political realignment has resulted in major changes in the partisan support of particular groups or classes of voters. Blue-collar whites, Hispanic and black males, Asians, and Jewish voters all moved towards Donald Trump and the Republicans, while college-educated whites largely shifted towards the Democrats. Because of this, the most dependable voters on election day are now the Democrats, rather than Republicans, which is a major reversal from the history of the past century. Also, new issues have become important to the voting public; for example, the issues of combating illegal immigration and the “trans issue.”
At this point, this political realignment – let’s call it the Trump Realignment – has been acknowledged by leftwing MSM organs, conservative media, and other MSM sources alike.
RELATED: Trump Touts Big Wins, Calls for Mid-Term Unconventional Convention
Trump Raises Massive Amount for GOP As Cash-Strapped DNC Works to Pay Off Harris Campaign Debt
So, is it possible that the Trump Realignment could allow the GOP to win bigly in the 2026 House elections?
A lot depends on what type of realignment the Trump Realignment is. As you can see below, not every realignment is exactly alike.
Since the Republican Party first emerged, there have been the following political realignments:
The Civil War Realignment – this realignment occurred during the late 1850s to the 1860s. The Republican Party emerged to combat slavery and became, narrowly, the governing party. GOP strength was boosted over the first fifteen years or so by the fact that most Southern Democrats absented themselves from federal elections. But in the latter half of the realignment period, as these Democrats rejoined the Union, the two parties were neck and neck in the Electoral College, in the presidential popular vote, and in Congress.
The McKinley Realignment – this realignment occurred during the 1890s. The GOP took a solid edge in the Electoral College, in the presidential popular vote, and in Congress as Republican William McKinley was able to win over blue-collar workers and business interests, partly by using tariffs and the monetary issue. Over this realignment period, the GOP got stronger over time, only losing the presidency to Democrat Woodrow Wilson when it split in 1912 and then again when he narrowly won reelection.
The New Deal Realignment – this realignment occurred from the late 1920s to the 1930s. Because of the Great Depression, the Democrats under Franklin Roosevelt reversed the party coalitions and became a solid majority party, winning over a coalition of blue-collar workers, farmers, women, black voters, and other minorities, and the educated elite, as they campaigned to dramatically expand the size and scope of the federal government. The Democrats frequently won large majorities in the Electoral College, in the presidential popular vote, and in Congress. Only under Dwight Eisenhower, the hero of WWII, was the GOP able to win the presidency; even then, though, the Democrats maintained their solid grip over Congress.
The Conservative Realignment – this realignment occurred during the 1960s. Unlike the other realignment periods, here there developed a bifurcated realignment, where the Republicans became the natural majority for the presidency, while the Democrats retained their solid edge in Congress. The GOP gained its presidential majority largely because the Democrats zoomed left on foreign policy, taxes, crime, and various social issues, painting themselves as irresponsible and insane (sound familiar?), and the GOP began to push for a reduction in the size and scope of the federal government.
The Clinton Realignment – this realignment occurred during the 1990s. Taking advantage of a GOP presidential split (i.e., Perot) in 1992, and running as a sane moderate Democrat, Bill Clinton was able to end the GOP presidential edge in both the popular vote and the Electoral College. However, the GOP found itself in better shape in Congress, especially in the House, where it developed an advantage. Only later, under Clinton’s Democrat presidential successors, Obama and Biden, did the Democrats revert to their left-wing policies, which undermined them yet again.
The Trump 2024 reelection had Trump winning the popular vote for the presidency and carrying the Electoral College. The GOP also narrowly held the House but took firm control over the Senate. These results may indicate the normal parameters of the new realignment; but they may not. The Trump Realignment certainly could follow in the footsteps of the McKinley Realignment, where the GOP just kept building its strength (minus the two exceptions).
If that is the case, then a big GOP gain in the House – and the Senate – may be possible in 2026. But right now, there are no indications that it is going to happen, and I continue to find it rather unlikely.
Editor’s Note: Do you enjoy RedState’s conservative reporting that takes on the radical left and woke media? Support our work so that we can continue to bring you the truth.
Join RedState VIP and use the promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member