… ♫ Stuck in 2016 with You ♪
It’s July 10, and this is your Sunday morning weekly poll round-up and public opinion sucktacular! This week we’ll see how major events shaped the daily poll results and examine who keeps winning every poll (but one.) And we’ll check the head to head, but also the head to head to head. Did the FBI’s list of Hillary’s crimes, and her getting away with them, hurt her? Did Trump’s response to Dallas help him?We’re going to find out here, so get your Kleenex and a bottle of rye, because this is 2016, and everything is just awful.
Here we go …
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
Donald Trump saw a two point decline over the week, while Secretary Hillary Clinton was just shy of a two point gain. The events in Dallas had no noticeable impact on Trump’s Friday polling.
Here is the matchup with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included, from Thursday and Friday’s daily trackers.
As you can see, both Trump and Hillary take a hit to their numbers when third parties are included, but more significantly, Hillary’s margin over Trump narrows quite a bit.
Reuters Weekly Poll
Once again, Hillary holds a commanding, double digit lead over Trump in the Reuters weekly poll as well.
More on that here.
USA TODAY/Suffolk:
The USA Today poll came out on Monday, and it showed Clinton’s lead over Trump drop to five points: 45.6% for Hillary to 40.4% for Trump. That’s down from the same national poll two months ago when here lead was 50%-39%; eleven points.
Since the poll last spring, both candidates have consolidated their claims to their parties’ nominations but neither has seen a significant bump in his or her standing. Indeed, Clinton’s support has dropped by almost five points.
When you add in the third party candidates, once again, things get interesting.
When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the list of options, Clinton’s lead over Trump drops to four points, 39%-35%. Johnson is backed by 8%, Stein by 3%.
Also interesting is “positive allegiance.” (ie. The famous “he’s not Hillary” justification.) Her voters are more likely voting for her rather than against him at 74% to 22%, while Trump is in a stickier situation. Only 48% are mostly voting for him, while a yuge 39% are mostly voting against her. That’s not good, but familiar for Trump.
Nevertheless, he’s got one more ace up his sleeve:
In the survey, 53% have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton; 60% have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Nearly one in five respondents hold a negative view of them both — a swing group whose lesser-of-two-evils choice could determine the outcome of a competitive election…
Of that 1 in 5 who hate both candidates, Trump polls ahead at 26% to 19%. But they’re both losing dramatically to “I dunno” at 44%. So what does that foretell?
I dunno.
As long as this section is, there’s a lot more to dissect from this very interesting poll, here.
Economist/YouGov:
Hillary is over Trump by 5 in the latest Economist/YouGov national poll.
However, as Leon noted, that’s not the most interesting takeaway. It’s the question of who do the third party voters hate the most, which is Hillary. Also, as with the Suffolk University Poll above, Hillary has more of her own voters voting for her as opposed to against him. Trump has a 58% for him, 41% against her ratio.
Rasmussen
This week, Rasmussen is the outlier again, but by a lesser margin. Released on Wednesday, they have Trump over Hillary by 2.
Unlike many other polls, when Rasmussen’s factors in Gary Johnson, there’s no big change, as Neil explains here.
OANN/Gravis
Released last Sunday, the One America News/Gravis poll question was simply “who would you vote for, and Hillary came out ahead by 2 points, 50% to 48% in the head to head. What’s interesting is the three-way split.
Trump drops two points back. So in this case, the folks voting for Johnson or other hurt Trump more. Remember, the OANN poll is one of Trump’s favorites. He even gets excited about it when he’s losing.
Pew Research:
The Pew poll results were released on Thursday, and in a three way matchup, they have Hillary over Trump by 9, with Johnson of course in a distant third.
Well not that distant. For the Libertarian to polling at 11% NATIONALLY at this late date is actually pretty remarkable. Thus, we’re remarking.
RCP Average
This week the Real Clear Politics Average has Hillary Clinton up by +4.7 in the head to head race at 45.6% to 40.9%. That’s a very slight uptick for Hillary over last week.
The Real Clear Politics Average in the head-to-head-to-head matchup has Clinton up +4.1%, with 40.9 to Donald Trump’s 36.8 and Gary Johnson’s 7.8.
Polls rise and polls fall, but this week we learned that the candidates are still pretty hated and have a lot of people voting against them instead of for them. So much so in Trump’s case that Hillary’s awful week saw a slight RISE in polling for her. Still they’re our camdidates now (it is presumed.) We’re stuck in the middle of 2016 with them.
Sigh.
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