From Unlikely Voter: Mason Dixon polled the Georgia Republican primary for Governor for the Georgia Newspaper Partnership, to see who might face Roy Barnes in November.
With the runoff tomorrow, it’s looking good for Karen Handel as she leads Nathan Deal, despite the problems we’ve seen with primary polling this year.
Yes, as we approach tomorrow’s runoff, Mason Dixon has Handel ahead of Deal 47-42, but sadly the Augusta Chronicle doesn’t tell us what the margin of error was. If we’re looking at an MoE of 5, then I show a 31% chance that Deal leads. If the MoE is 2.5, that drops to 16. Update: Reader tngal finds an MoE of 4, putting Deal at 27 to Handel’s 73.
I wish I had more polls to look at, but we go into the election with the polling we have.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Neil, does this help?
tngal (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 10:14AM EST (link)HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted this poll Aug. 4-6. A total 625 likely Republican runoff voters in Georgia were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect GOP primary voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.
‘http://jacksonville.com/news/georgia/2010-08-07/story/handel-has-slight-lead-pre-vote-poll-results
Nice find (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 10:19AM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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have no idea
tngal (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 10:33AM EST (link)what it means. That’s your dept. Statistics was not a strong suit. Which is a sad commentary on my intelligence. Then again, I don’t go to bed worrying if Guam is going to capsize so there is hope fpr me yet.
Didn't know that early votes had been counted? No one knows who leads
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 10:27AM EST (link)I am for Handel and will be voting for her again tomorrow. She didn’t help herself with a nasty ad against Deal that echoed un-proven charges of corruption made by Soros et al. Then Deal trumped Handel with an even worse ad.
But guess what, Handel was going to win before Palin showed up the first time and today because of Deal’s 28 yrs in DC and because Handel had already attracted tea partier attention before Palin took notice.
Who needs polls? The vote is tomorrow. We will know after the vote who wins.
Thinking one knows today he was “ahead” is all yakyak.
The latest in a ten year series of scoffing at the desire to know a thing five minutes before we all know a thing…
The margin of error after the vote is zero…
smile guys and get used to does of reality regularly delivered by campaign vet gamecock
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So who wins Neil?
rdelbov Monday, August 9th at 10:40AM EST (link)How about this for runoffs in 2010?
AR- In the US senate AR2-AR3–the intial leader won the runoff but in AR1 the democrat who was second won the runoff.
IN SC the three leaders in SC1-SC2-SC4(I think I got those numbers right) and the Gov nominee won the runoffs.
In AL Bentley beat Bryne after trailing in 1st race while Roby beat Barber in the GOP runoff.
So a quick test for 2010 is that the intial leader won 8/10 runoffs. That’s seems to be the historical norm. Incumbents under 50% were 50-50 this year but GA Gov race is an open seat.
I think Handel wins but she needs a big Atlanta area turnout while Deal needs a big North GA turnout.
Anyone can read day before polls, but Cockstradamus knew Handel before Palin knew her and SAID SO
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 2:07PM EST (link)archives showing Handel on track to win before Palin endorsed her
http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Atlanta-Law–Politics-Examiner~topic378205-Georgia?selstate=topcat#breadcrumb
Most recent column on race, this race, etc
http://www.redstate.com/gamecock/2010/08/07/cockstradamus-on-death-of/
Handel tapped into tea partiers before Palin. Huckabee can’t erase Deal’s 28 yrs in DC.
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Unresolved Handel Questions
el_cid01 (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 11:22AM EST (link)I’ve asked this before with no response from anyone, maybe because I put my comment in too late. My family and I live in GA and are debating about whether to vote for Deal or Handel. I’m leaning towards Handel but would like to know where the Redstate supporters stand on the following (I have searched the archives and can’t find any comment on these questions):
1. Why did Handel lie about being a member of the Log Cabin Republicans? I understand the cultural thing in running for office in GA, but the fact that she lied makes me uneasy.
2. I understand her courting the gay vote in Fulton County, but how intertwined is Handel with the gay activist lobby? I don’t have anything against your average gay person, but I do not want my governor pandering to radical gay activist groups.
3. At the end of the day, I want the candidate who will poll better against Roy Barnes. Deal is trumpeting several polls that show him with a 6 point lead or so over him while Handel is virtually tied with Barnes. I haven’t seen Redstate mention this at all (I could have missed it, if so please let me know) and I have to question why. You’re saying Mason-Dixon is the only polling out there and I do not think that’s true.
I am probably going to vote for Handel myself, but if you or anyone else could address these questions it would go a long way towards picking up some additional votes for her.
Um
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 11:32AM EST (link)If you can show me another public primary poll, go ahead.
Put up or shut up.
Because your whole post reeks of disingenuous trolling, you Deal shill you.
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I'm a Deal shill for asking questions?
el_cid01 (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:20PM EST (link)Thanks a lot, Neal. Classy. Your attitude is completely uncalled for. I guess the “be respectful, or be banned” guidelines only apply to the little people.
You can check my profile and see I’m no shill as I’ve been contributing here since before Obama got elected. Any chance you are going to answer my honest questions or just attack me some more? I expected more from one of the regulars at Redstate. These should be easy questions you would be happy to answer.
As I said, members of my family are leaning towards Deal, and these questions are from them. So if you want to call my family members who have lived in Georgia for most of lives “shills”, go ahead. Again: classy.
Here’s what I was referencing, polls conducted by a little outfit called Rasmussen, which is why they grabbed my interest in the first place:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/georgia/election_2010_georgia_governor
Specifically this part: “Handel earns 45% of the vote against Barnes while Deal picks up 49%.”
I want Barnes beaten more than I want Deal or Handel elected. Is that so hard to understand?
As I also said, which maybe you missed, if any of these issues have already been addressed at Redstate (or anywhere else) I would appreciate a link to the post. My plan was to then share it with my family. But if it’s easier for you to slander me, I guess that’s cool, too.
So why hasn’t Redstate mentioned this? That was my question. Care to answer it? Maybe it’s time for YOU to “put up or shut up” now?
You're just not even handed
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:24PM EST (link)You feign support for Handel but mindlessly parrot a series of attacks on her without supplying a shred of support for any of them.
And you admit you’ve spammed these attacks before, but are continuing to spam them because nobody’s playing with you.
Fact: Nobody cares about your questions until you back them up with proof. Until then we’ll all just assume you’re a paid Deal hack.
And I asked you a direct question. Your answer is insufficient. That is not a primary poll. So I was right, and you were completely wrong.
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I'M not even handed??
el_cid01 (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:41PM EST (link)Are you kidding me? But you are, right?
Then why can’t I find a single Redstate post addressing this:
http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2010/06/08/karen-handels-e-mails-with-log-cabin-republicans/
Or about the check for her LCR dues? Hasn’t Handel admitted she lied about that? Is it shilling to ask you if these things are true or not?
Just wondering.
el_cid01, you ask good questions. Please send links proving Handel lies and I will respond rather than name call
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 2:11PM EST (link)I have supported Handel before Palin knew her name and supported her over Deal after Deal resigned his job before the ObamaCare vote. Yes, he was shamed into returning to his job and voting against ObamaCare, but he his priority was running for Governor, not his job.
Both Deal and Handel have run nasty irrelevant ads but handel is the ONLY candidate that has EXPICITLY said she will CUT non-teacher education jobs.
Even Deal is vague and so a coward on this MAIN issue in Georgia’s budget.
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Deal or Handel ?
tonydepalma Monday, August 9th at 9:58PM EST (link)That’s the problem with RINO’s vote for a guy because he might do better in November? I say get rid of the Libs but throw the RINO’s out 1st! I voted Handel because shes better then Deal November has nothing to do with the run off. We need Conservatives in the party not career hacks like Deal!
“Men are not Angels”
James Madison
Neil -- This is the poll that Deal has referenced
Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 11:55AM EST (link)http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/georgia/election_2010_georgia_governor
********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts
So the answer is no
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:19PM EST (link)That’s not a primary poll.
I am totally vindicated.
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You're not vindicated, Neal...
el_cid01 (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:23PM EST (link)…because I said my main concern is defeating Barnes, not “shilling” (your words) for a particular GOP candidate.
The question remains: why hasn’t Redstate made any mention of the Rasmussen polls? If it’s Handel or bust, that’s fine, but just say so.
Maybe you should spend more time reading the comments and less time attacking the commenters?
Let me be clear
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:26PM EST (link)You have four choices:
1. Show me a recent primary poll other than the M-D one I linked
2. Admit I was right, and you were wrong
3. Stop posting about Karen Handel on this site
4. Get banned from RedState
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Agreed.
bens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:31PM EST (link)How does a poll taken in July accurately predict the November outcome?
Also they are two different kinds of polls
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:33PM EST (link)The Rasmussen poll is his typical carpet bomb of every possible general election matchup.
The Mason-Dixon poll is an actual poll of the runoff.
el_cid01 is claiming that the Rasmussen poll is of the primary.
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No I didn't. Liar.
el_cid01 (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:43PM EST (link)I never claimed that:
“At the end of the day, I want the candidate who will poll better against Roy Barnes. Deal is trumpeting several polls that show him with a 6 point lead or so over him while Handel is virtually tied with Barnes. I haven’t seen Redstate mention this at all (I could have missed it, if so please let me know) and I have to question why. You’re saying Mason-Dixon is the only polling out there and I do not think that’s true.”
Like I said, Neal: spend more time reading, less time attacking.
And btw, you should put a huge disclaimer up somewhere that warns people not to disagree with the Lordly Redstate Posters. So sorry to have rocked the boat.
PS
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:48PM EST (link)It’s neat how in the end you prove yourself to hate us.
Unreliable Establishment types tend to do just that.
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3, 2, 1...
ceili_dancer (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:49PM EST (link)Like in Braveheart, “HOLD,…., HOLD,…”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tr8bZ25uo1U
Wow, Neal
el_cid01 (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:39PM EST (link)Feeling a bit heavy-handed today, are we? You’re going to ban me because I dared to challenge you? Really? And even though I produced the poll I was originally referring to, you’re still going to pout like a baby and demand something I was never talking about in the first place? What a joke.
You just cost Karen Handel three votes that she had last time around. I’m not going to vote for someone whose supporters are such…well you know, something that starts with an “A”. Believe it or don’t believe it, I don’t care.
These are the idiotic things that cause places like this to lose their respectability. Ban me if you want, you baby. Whatever.
G'bye
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:45PM EST (link)Since you refuse to choose one of choices 1-3, I choose 4 for you.
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Barnes will lose to either Deal or Handel. This is a Republican state in a GOP wave election year - No poll can tell you what will happen except for elections held TODAY. For tomorrow, you need Cockstradamus. You poll worshipers crack me up. - nt
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 2:13PM EST (link)Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
Hey Mike
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 2:15PM EST (link)If you don’t like polls why even comment in a poll thread?
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Its really more the inherent misleading nature of headlines and the zeal of some to be first with news
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Tuesday, August 10th at 12:22PM EST (link)that isnt news and that the knowing of same “first” matters not a whit. Leading in a poll is not the same as “leading” in the actual vote, and when it comes to election days, given that votes aren’t counted until ALL votes are cast, no one actually every leads and doesn’t lead. That is an accident of which already cast votes are counted first.
If i were a candidate, post Florida 2000, I would announce on Election Day, that I would make no statement to the Press until the next day, after Noon.
more later in column
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I comment on lots of things I don't like, as do you, precisely because I don't like it!
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Tuesday, August 10th at 12:26PM EST (link)I am interested in the reporting of polls. smile
What I really enjoy is substantive defenses of serious questions, no matter the source. For instance, I’m voting for Handel despite the fact that she probably did lie about her LCR associations. Other issues are paramount esp given that Barnes and Deal are also flawed politicians and especially given Barnes positions on issues.
Deal, unlike Handel, has equivocated on necessary education cuts. Barnes is in bed with education.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
I will vote for Handel but expect Deal to win
Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 11:57AM EST (link)One of my concerns early on was that Handel ran negative against all three of the other candidates to get into the primary and I think that was a mistake.
She could have probably ignored Johnson and then tried to get his support in the runoff.
********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts
Oz...
el_cid01 (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:25PM EST (link)…is there any chance you would be willing to answer the questions I asked?
Seriously, I am just looking for someone’s pro-Handel answer to them. Neal can think I’m a troll all he wants, but these really shouldn’t be hard to answer.
See my post above el_cid01 (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:27PM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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Deal trolls have abounded the past few days.
bens (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:34PM EST (link)They present themselves as an undecided/wavering voters, then launch an attack on Karen.
Just like the Oxendine and McBerry sock puppets did during the primary.
Hi, el_cid01. You were told to do something.
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:40PM EST (link)By a site moderator.
Do it.
Next post.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
Those aren't my questions so I don't have answers
Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 12:41PM EST (link)What I have are two candidates who I would be relatively okay with.
I don’t like Handel’s attack ads in the primary … not my style.
On the other hand, some of what Deal did looks shady and there is an ongoing investigation into it.
You mention above who can beat Barnes. I agree. And my conclusion is that Deal isn’t going to be that person if Barnes can beat him with a stick about an investigation.
********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts
Deals 28 years in DC are the main problem, not alleged corruption
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 2:16PM EST (link)I think Barnes could beat Deal. Not Handel and probably not Deal.
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great point Oz, but Handel will still win. Another lesson in "don't put faith in politicians" - nt
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 2:14PM EST (link)Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
Fate of the GA Gov primary will lie
chihank Monday, August 9th at 4:10PM EST (link)on which direction the Augusta to Savannah region takes.
Although, given the trends of US House members (Gresham Barret, Pete Hoeskra) seeking higher office in the primaries, Nathan Deal’s chances don’t look good.
Plus Zach Wamp
rdelbov Monday, August 9th at 4:16PM EST (link)went down in flames
bringing DC magic to capital city only seems to be working in OK with Fallin.
One important piece of information
SirGladiator (Diary) Monday, August 9th at 7:40PM EST (link)The most important fact about tomorrow’s vote in regard to who is going to win, is what is happening today, and that is that Governor Palin is returning to Georgia to campaign for Handel, just like she did for Senator Chambliss in his runoff. So have no fear, while Handel might have only a relatively small lead now, by tomorrow it’ll be back up to a very healthy margin indeed, and she’s going to win this runoff by double digits!
Looks like it is going to be very close
michiganwolverine Monday, August 9th at 11:21PM EST (link)Landmark Communications (R) Georgia Gubernatorial Primary Runoff
* Nathan Deal 43.7% (37.1%)
* Karen Handel 41.9% (45.8%)
* Undecided 14.4% (17.1%)
Among Republicans (73.6%)
* Nathan Deal 47.4%
* Karen Handel 41.0%
* Undecided 11.6%
Among Independents (23.8%)
* Karen Handel 43.6%
* Nathan Deal 32.9%
* Undecided 23.5%
Among Men (50.9%)
* Nathan Deal 45.1%
* Karen Handel 40.7%
* Undecided 14.2%
Among Women (49.1%)
* Karen Handel 43.1%
* Nathan Deal 42.2%
* Undecided 14.7%
Age 18-34 (9.1%)
* Nathan Deal 42.1%
* Karen Handel 19.3%
* Undecided 38.6%
Age 35-50 (23.9%)
* Nathan Deal 41.6%
* Karen Handel 36.9%
* Undecided 21.5%
Age 51-64 (34.9%)
* Karen Handel 48.6%
* Nathan Deal 44.5%
* Undecided 6.9%
Age 65+ (32.1%)
* Karen Handel 45.0%
* Nathan Deal 44.5%
* Undecided 10.5%
Landmark Communications (R) Georgia Gubernatorial Primary Runoff
* Nathan Deal 43.7% (37.1%)
* Karen Handel 41.9% (45.8%)
* Undecided 14.4% (17.1%)
Among Republicans (73.6%)
* Nathan Deal 47.4%
* Karen Handel 41.0%
* Undecided 11.6%
Among Independents (23.8%)
* Karen Handel 43.6%
* Nathan Deal 32.9%
* Undecided 23.5%
Among Men (50.9%)
* Nathan Deal 45.1%
* Karen Handel 40.7%
* Undecided 14.2%
Among Women (49.1%)
* Karen Handel 43.1%
* Nathan Deal 42.2%
* Undecided 14.7%
Age 18-34 (9.1%)
* Nathan Deal 42.1%
* Karen Handel 19.3%
* Undecided 38.6%
Age 35-50 (23.9%)
* Nathan Deal 41.6%
* Karen Handel 36.9%
* Undecided 21.5%
Age 51-64 (34.9%)
* Karen Handel 48.6%
* Nathan Deal 44.5%
* Undecided 6.9%
Age 65+ (32.1%)
* Karen Handel 45.0%
* Nathan Deal 44.5%
* Undecided 10.5%
Polling runoffs can be tough
Adjoran (Diary) Tuesday, August 10th at 5:37AM EST (link)Typically only a small fraction of the original primary voters will show up for runoffs, and unless one side has generated a wave of late interest, it is almost impossible to predict who will turn out.
One might expect Deal’s supporters, being more establishment types and older generally, to turn out at a higher rate. But Handel may tap into the reform enthusiasm from the Tea Parties and elsewhere to offset that, so it is anybody’s guess.
As Mike DeVine noted earlier, we’ll all know tonight, so why argue about polling?