From Unlikely Voter: Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race.
We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.
Rasmussen right now has Berg leading still, but only by a 49-46 (MoE 4.5) margin over Pomeroy. That does give Berg a 63% chance of still being ahead, but then that’s still over a one third shot for Pomeroy to keep his seat.
One would expect a seat like this one to be one of the more competitive House seats, as without a districting process there is no gerrymandering process. But incumbency matters even in statewide elections, so that Pomeroy would close in, or even take a lead here or there, is not a surprising thing.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
I think Berg wins
rdelbov Tuesday, July 27th at 3:35PM EST (link)but I fully expect -whether the GOP picks up 40 or 60 or whatever that there will be 20 or so races within 6% on election night. That’s history. Now all of those could go to the GOP–in house races that unlikely.
We might gain 60 on election night but there will be a couple of heartbreakers who lose a very narrow margin.
Polls, Schmolls
northcack34 (Diary) Tuesday, July 27th at 3:53PM EST (link)Meh. I don’t care what their methodology is, I don’t trust polls taken during the summer that show Dems/liberals in close races districts like ND’s. Conservatives are too busy during the summer either (a) working or (b) on vacation, so they aren’t around to answer the phone. Liberals don’t work, so they have plenty of time to answer pollsters’ phone calls. Show me the polls around early October, after all the conservatives are all back in town.
Health care vote and spending spree will eat Pomeroy alive
RealQuiet (Diary) Tuesday, July 27th at 4:41PM EST (link)Berg will no doubt put some distance between himself and Pomeroy once Labor Day arrives.
Pomeroy's biggest problem...
Coop Tuesday, July 27th at 6:44PM EST (link)… is that the GOP Governor Hoeven is running away with the Senate race. Pomeroy’s likely not going to get the help at the top of the ticket that he so desperately needs. What a pity.
Indeed
Neil Stevens (Diary) Tuesday, July 27th at 7:16PM EST (link)Herseth-Sandlin has the same problem in SD, since the Democrats failed when trying to FIND a challenger for Thune.
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proudgop (Diary) Tuesday, July 27th at 10:29PM EST (link)I agree with Hoeven and Thune both need to help republicans in congress race ( use their money to set up a lot campaign headquarters in the states)
Rasmussen also had Hoeven down 3 from before so Berg being down 3 makes sense
Keep in mind Pomeroy has been on airwaves unchallenged for some time now so his numbers not improving speaks volumes
Obamacare is particularly toxic in ND
itsjoanne Tuesday, July 27th at 10:14PM EST (link)Isn’t that a lot why Dorgan decided to retire? And I think Dorgan probably knew Hoeven was going to run. Hoeven should get 70% easily, and if nothing else Berg can ride on his coattails.
But I think Berg will easily win also. Pomeroy is very liberal, and ND is not.
Many Democrats from Plains and Mountain states have been able to survive for years
Adjoran (Diary) Wednesday, July 28th at 4:23AM EST (link)- by bringing home enough pork, and giving good constituent service to counterbalance their liberal voting records in DC. That may not be enough anymore.
When an established incumbent is polling beneath 50%, that’s considered a red flag even in normal years. In years where there appears to be a mounting wave for the other party, cue the lights and sirens.
Having said that, I’ll agree that summer polls don’t carry much weight, and even less in midterm years. So we shouldn’t take any more from this than another indication that Pomeroy is indeed vulnerable, and Berg is doing well so far. Given the political environment, Pomeroy’s challenge is to convince voters he is an exception, and not part of the problem.
Given his record, I doubt he will be able to do so, but North Dakota has kept Dorgan for decades now, so they aren’t necessarily the sharpest knives in the drawer.