Welcome to the 2010 Election campaign cycle!


Yes, everything that has happened up to this point has been the overture, prologue, or whatever other metaphor is most suitable for the reader. This is the time when the rest of the people who will be voting in the midterms will start looking around and paying attention to everything that’s going around them. Which is, of course, their privilege; besides, there’s probably less of them this time around. And they’re going to see the following:

  • The economy is a shambles (look it up, sometime: it’s a hideously appropriate term for the situation).  9.6% unemployment, and I can say without fear of contradiction that the only way that it will dip down to 6% or better next month is if the Rapture’s on Wednesday.
  • The Democrats are getting hammered in their races.  We’re fighting in Connecticut, California, Illinois, and Delaware: they’re fighting… largely in their own territory.  It tells you a lot that their best Senate pickup is relying on a rapidly-fading third party candidate, and that I can count on one hand how many Republican House races are in play.  The Democrats are getting hammered in the polls.  The generic ones say it all, really – but add Stu Rothenberg to the list of people who think that the House is going to flip.
  • That GOTV thing that the Democrats keep saying will save them?  Not so much.
  • That President will save candidates in danger thing?  Not so much.

It’s not over, but the narrative of the 2010 race is going to be established by the end of next week, and by all accounts the Other Side is going to enjoy the consequences about as much as we did when it happened to us in 2006 and 2008.  I also seem to recall a certain lack of sympathy being passed my way on those occasions.

Moe Lane

PS: “But, Moe!  Tell Republicans this and they’ll stay home and the Democrats will win anyway!”  Sure they will.  Players always quit a game in progress when they’re ahead and the other team can’t catch a break.  Street fights always stop the moment when the other guy’s first laid out on the ground.  And political movements hungry for wins always treat the news that they’re ahead with lessened enthusiasm.

Happens all the time, really.

PPS: So no, I’m not going to tell you to not get cocky.  It ain’t bragging if you can do it.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.


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It's going to be a tidal wave for sure, hopefully it

reaganauh2o Tuesday, September 7th at 4:34PM EST (link)

will be so humiliating when the east coast numbers come through, the west coast dems don’t bother to go to the polls (memories of the Carter loss to Reagan in 1980 when the great snivelling from the left wanted all polling places to close at the same time).

Then Reid, Boxer, and Murray have a better shot at defeat so the margins are beyond the ballot stuffing range. The only thing dampening my spirits are the number of RINO’s we’ll end up with. McCain, Kirk, Castle. I’m really rooting for Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, but some of the dirtiest campaigning I’ve seen is RINO’s against true Reagan conservatives.

"Tsunami", not "tidal wave" *gr*

Jeffrey Malbis (malbis) (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 5:52PM EST (link)

Tsunami is the term that Politico has on their site–good heavens, this could turn out to be a Liberal disaster of …of…GLOBAL WARMING proportions!!!

However, the time for worrying about RINOs isn’t now. Now is the time to focus on geting everyone and anyone with an R next to their name elected this November.

Because come January, we have the prospects of having the House (certainly) and the Senate (probably) controlled by Republicans. And that means that we will control what bills come up, what gets funded and what withers on the vine, confirmations–and quite probably who fills the seat of at least one (and possibly two) more Supreme Court justices.

How RINOs vote isn’t anywhere near as important as who controls what they are voting on. I’d much rather that the ultra left-wingers who are chairing committees and steering bills to the floor were not there come January. Wouldn’t you?

Let’s get control back. Then let’s accomplish something to get the country back on track.

Don't forget the gubernatorial races as well..

reaganauh2o Tuesday, September 7th at 6:40PM EST (link)

Haley Barbour is doing a stellar job in making sure we paint the states red. Re-districting is another huge victory coming our way. Liberal gerrymandering has created some of the strangest district boundaries imagineable.

 

Only Hunt RINOs in Season

Tony Raskoon Tuesday, September 7th at 6:55PM EST (link)

Agree completely. We need R’s. Period. Primaries are RINO season.

RINO season ends when the Primary is over!

luciusacius (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 8:35PM EST (link)

Perfect comment and1morething. This needs to be said over and over until governing starts, then no RINO committee chairs!

Lucius Accius
“oderint dum metuant”

It's still RINO season in Delaware until next Tues.

reaganauh2o Tuesday, September 7th at 10:47PM EST (link)

Mike Castle has been in office since the LBJ administration. He is a complete lib and the long knives are out until then. I read all the info that Castle has probably met everybody in Delaware by now, but I’m really hoping Christine O’Donnell pulls it out.

The Castle people are in full smear mode which tells me that she worries them. Nikki Haley pulled it out in South Carolina in the face of some completely reprehensible tactics. That reminds me of LBJ again…early in his career he wanted his people to start a rumour campaign that his opponent had intimate relations with livestock. They told him “you know that’s not true”….he replies “I know, I just want him on record denying it”.

 
 

Principle before Party

Liberty2076 (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 7:23AM EST (link)

It is going to take several election cycles to flush the toilet politic, particularly in the Senate. If Republicans support Mike Castle, then they either disagree radically with me on things that are essential to the future of my country, or worse, they only pay lip service to those things and demonstrate by putting their name on them that they value them less than naked power.

Castle doesn’t get me another vote for what I believe is right, so why should I get a domestic opponent of the Constitution AND a further erosion of the Republican brand?

I’m willing to be educated on why that is good for my country… ?

 
 

Sorry, but no

justluthien Wednesday, September 8th at 2:19AM EST (link)

… I’m done voting for Rinos.

As a conservative Independent, I watched Collins and Snow undermine the GOP everytime it tried to present a united front. I watched as they gave the Democrats one filibuster-proof victory after another, and always on an important bill. Were they stripped of important committee seats? Denied RNC campaign funds and support? Isolated and shunned by other party members? Reprimanded? Spanked? No, McConnell, Steele, and the rest of the party leadership did nothing.

So, no, I broke with the party on principle when it nominated Lame-Brain McCain in 2008; I won’t compromise them now, not even to “win one for the Gipper.”

“I won’t be wronged, I won’t be insulted, and I won’t be laid a hand on. I don’t do these things to other people and I expect the same from them.” John Wayne, The Shootist

Policy v. Probity

GreyCloak (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 4:38AM EST (link)

I can’t say that I agree with Collins and Snow, but their constituents appear to. This Texan can’t change an election in Maine, nor should he.

justluthien: if you have RINOs in your district, your options seem to be limited to Libertarians (not a bad vote) or not voting at all (not a good idea).

Perhaps in 2012 we’ll find someone who hasn’t been around so long that he deserves the nomination (like Dole or McCain [although McCain fought a hard primary fight]).

THIS year, it’s all about taking back Congress. If you don’t vote, it won’t happen.

On the other hand, if the Party goes back to their wild-spending ways (beginning in 2000), as Boehner is now considering, stay home. Politicians who spend more taxpayer money than they can take in deserve to be left in the wilderness.

 
 

Sorry, but no

justluthien Wednesday, September 8th at 2:19AM EST (link)

… I’m done voting for Rinos.

As a conservative Independent, I watched Collins and Snow undermine the GOP everytime it tried to present a united front. I watched as they gave the Democrats one filibuster-proof victory after another, and always on an important bill. Were they stripped of important committee seats? Denied RNC campaign funds and support? Isolated and shunned by other party members? Reprimanded? Spanked? No, McConnell, Steele, and the rest of the party leadership did nothing.

So, no, I broke with the party on principle when it nominated Lame-Brain McCain in 2008; I won’t compromise them now, not even to “win one for the Gipper.”

“I won’t be wronged, I won’t be insulted, and I won’t be laid a hand on. I don’t do these things to other people and I expect the same from them.” John Wayne, The Shootist

 
 
 

My Precautionary Post of The Day...

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 4:40PM EST (link)

Do not even THINK of being complacent! We have won nothing, NOTHING….

I think Rex Ryan would offer the GOP the following advice.

“You can be a world champion, but not like this. We won’t win it! We’ll sit back and say, ‘Why didn’t we do it?’ We didn’t do it because where were our f—— priorities? How about our offense? When are we going to put it together? When are we going to put it together? Can we not run the ball down their throats every snap? Can we not throw it any time we want to f—— throw it? Let’s make sure we play like the f—— New York Jets! And not some f—— slapd— team. That’s what I want to see tomorrow. Do we understand what the f— I want to see tomorrow? Let’s go eat a god— snack.” (HT: Peter King, SI.com)

” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis

Good point, plus November isn't the end of the fight.

earlgrey (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 5:11PM EST (link)

After the elections the work won’t stop. We need to hold the politicians feet to the fire on rolling back the damaging policies. We need to still fight back on local levels in local races to weed out damaging policies in cities and schools. We have to continue to oganize such as the Concord Project. We have to stay educated and try to educate those around us. The list goes on and on, and I am probably the least qualified to summarize what needs to be done.

I was disappointed that I wasn’t able to make some progress with a friend over the weekend as we discussed a few things. Than I noticed the TV in his house was tuned to MSNBC.

Hey Earlgrey, some people you just can't help

ywhyvon1 Tuesday, September 7th at 9:03PM EST (link)

NEXT? Just go on to the next one.

You did a good job summarizing IMHO

Socialist with fork looking for Socialist with pork pie-unknown

 
 
 

The phrase I'm hearing often from talking heads

throwback59 Tuesday, September 7th at 4:55PM EST (link)

(and one I’ve used myself for the past year) is that “Republicans will crawl on broken glass to get to the polls.” I think that’s accurate in describing the mood of right leaning voters.
The only crawling the dems are gonna do on election day is back in their holes.
I’ve waited 22 months to send Obama & his lap dogs a message.

I sure hope that you're right!

bs61 Wednesday, September 8th at 1:50AM EST (link)

Because here in AZ we had a very low turnout for the primaries – everyone in the news said it was due to storms. We can vote from home and I got my ballot in the mail – why we don’t have 100% voting is beyond me!

 
 

Thankfully

rdelbov Tuesday, September 7th at 4:56PM EST (link)

Erick and others posted threads about the Concord project. I am writting checks for more candidates in a day or so.

There is no reason to rest-the seat that the GOP loses by 100 votes could be your own.

“the saddest words of tongue or pen are these it might have been”. Martin Luther King said those words and they are still true today. They are weaveable words.

ONE vote could be your own

GreyCloak (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 4:44AM EST (link)

Much as recent elections have hung on a few hundred votes (or less), the unspoken corollary is that people don’t really care! When the Public is split 50-50 on candidates, the Parties ought to take note that their success sometimes lies in a coin-flip.

If you care to make a difference, VOTE!

 
 

Daley retiring

Stan(ley) Pruss (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 5:00PM EST (link)

Will Daley’s retirement as Chicago mayor reduce the effectiveness of the Chicago machine as Rahm E. tries to take control? R’s could do well if that happened?

Daley Family Business

GreyCloak (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 5:04AM EST (link)

NOTE: “Willy” Daley is an investment banker and ran Gore’s 2000 campaign. Richard M. Daley is Mayor (1989-present) of Chicago. His father Richard J. served as Mayor from 1955 to 1976.

“Da Mare” (Dickie’s Daddy) used to list his profession as “Mayor of Chicago.” The Daley’s are a Chicago institution.

The Chicago Machine is alive and well; Republicans won’t make inroads just because The Mayor retires because his wife is ill.

After Dan Rostenkowski went to jail, the only Republican in decades was elected to a House seat from a Chicago district. The Daleys ordered the Democratic candidate for the seat to not campaign. All because Bill Clinton broke a promise. Consequently, a Democrat was elected after one term, the Republican got a cushy job with the State, and Billy Daley was appointed Secretary of Commerce.

OH … the Democratic Party Successor? None other than Rob Blagoyavich!

Don’t ever count on a Republican seeing the light of day in Chicago.

What cushy state job?

merryj1 Wednesday, September 8th at 7:23AM EST (link)

The Republican who won Rostenkowski’s seat was Flannagan, if memory serves; word at the time was that it was Rosty who requested no “hard” (translation: no smears) campaign fighting, a courtesy repaid because Flannagan refrained from campaigning on Rosty’s ethical lapse and legal problem.

The State government at that time was Republican-dominated, but George Ryan was the incoming Gov, not a big Flannagan fan. What state job did he get?

 
 
 

Price of Freedom

Tony Raskoon Tuesday, September 7th at 6:57PM EST (link)

Eternal Vigilance. Nothing less.

5

ywhyvon1 Tuesday, September 7th at 9:05PM EST (link)

Socialist with fork looking for Socialist with pork pie-unknown

 

Yes! I was asleep for too long.

bs61 Wednesday, September 8th at 1:53AM EST (link)

Watching MSM, skipping happily along thru life – never again! If the R’s get there and do the same old thing, they will be hearing from me often. If they think their emails/phone calls will be less, they are in for a huge let down.

 
 

Moe, you forgot one other thing they'll be seeing.

Mike (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 7:36PM EST (link)

And that thing is DOOOOOOOM!

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!! :D

 

Neil, RCP has Gallup Generic ballot as 46/46

blaze422 (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 7:54PM EST (link)

You need to kick some ass again. On Aug 30 it was 51/ 41. Are they messing with the methodology again?

Gallup's Week-to-Week Numbers Are Useless. That Is All. (nt)

IJB Tuesday, September 7th at 8:55PM EST (link)
 

Let's talk Austin!

harlan Tuesday, September 7th at 9:53PM EST (link)

Sorry, I’m all a-twitter. New thread…GO!

 

Yeehaw.

OccamsRazor (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 3:54AM EST (link)

Buckle up.

 

That President will save candidates in danger thing?

bk (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 5:15AM EST (link)

Which are the Democrats hiding from the most?
a) Their ‘accomplishments’
b) Town hall meetings
c) Presidential visits
d) All of the above

The confidence level of their incumbents has to be in the toilet – for good reason.

 

What the recent past tells us

vamoose Wednesday, September 8th at 9:09AM EST (link)

There are 3 races that are quite instructive:
Nov. ’09: Bob McDonnell crushing Creigh Deeds in VA
Nov. ’09: Christie beating Corzine by 6% in NJ
Jan. ’10: Brown beating Coakley by 5% in MA

In VA Dems had won the past two governor elections (Kaine) and the past two senate elections (Webb & Warner). McDonnell won easily. This is the race where the White House through Deeds under the bus when it became apparent he couldn’t win. Obama didn’t want the race to be taken as a an indication that he had lost his campaign mojo.

In NJ that old Dem war horse Corzine was defeated by Christie with a comfortable margin in a race that was a legitimate toss up in the last weeks.

In MA, well, we all know the story: huge upset. MA elected a Republican to fill the Kennedy seat.

I think these 3 races are characteristic of the results we will see this November. I haven’t seen anything in polls to suggest that Dems have improved there standing with the voters. In fact, it looks like things are getting worse for Dems.

As voters in VA, NJ, and MA started to pay attention as election day neared, things got worse for Dems. I hope (and suspect) that Dems will fare no better this fall.