Voting in the 2026 elections is already underway in much of the U.S., and polls have been bouncing back and forth — as are our expectations as to the accuracy of those polls. While it's true that the only poll that matters is the one that happens on Election Day, polls can nevertheless have an encouraging or a chilling effect, depending on which side one is on. Recently, many pollsters have been predicting a Democrat sweep of the House of Representatives and the Senate, even though in the last few cycles, the polls have badly underestimated Republican turnout.
John McLaughlin, the founder of the McLaughlin Group polling organization, isn't so sure about the Democrats' prospects.
Pollster John McLaughlin told Newsmax on Saturday that Republicans will outperform what he called "phony polls" in Tuesday's midterm elections, singling out New York House races where he said GOP candidates are running strong.
Appearing on "America Right Now", the co-founder of McLaughlin & Associates urged Republicans to keep voting through Election Day. "Republicans are coming out, but they got to keep coming out because the election is on Tuesday," he said.
"You can't believe the phony polls," McLaughlin said. "Remember that at this time two years ago, Kamala Harris was going to be president?"
He took aim at the Siena Research Institute, whose Oct. 19-22 survey of 807 likely voters put New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, ahead of Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 54% to 40%, with an 11-percentage-point lead among independents.
Mr. McLaughlin doesn't just rely on American polls to make his case.
McLaughlin, who said he has worked for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cited Israel's Oct. 27 election as a warning about polling.
He said surveys there had projected Gadi Eisenkot's party would finish first, "and instead Likud's leading party with Netanyahu."
Likud won 27 seats, the most of any party, compared with 21 for Eisenkot's Yashar party. Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats to 48 for the Eisenkot-led opposition bloc.
Bear in mind that the McLaughlin Group has been accused (by Democrats) of favoring Republican candidates. In the 2020 elections, his predictions were within a point; in 2022, the average error was around 4 points in favor of Republicans. That's about the same margin that some pollsters are claiming that Democrats are overestimated by.
Mind you, while this is all very interesting, and while it would be lovely for John McLaughlin to be calling this one spot-on, at this point it won't influence much. In fact, if anything, we should be glad if polls in general are badly overestimating support for Democrat candidates. It may, on the margins, flatten Democrat turnout and boost Republican turnout, and if there's one thing Democrats have historically been good at, it's getting out their voters. And in the era of Trump, the Trump Derangement Syndrome-riddled Left is fired up to vote. The battle lines by now are mostly drawn. And, let's be honest: If someone hasn't yet made up their mind who to support at this late stage of the game, they likely shouldn't be voting at all.
Polls or no polls, we'll just have to see their enthusiasm and raise them a few thousand, or a few million votes.