Could there be hopeful signs for Republican Representative Elise Stefanik in her race to unseat Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul in the 2026 New York governor's race?
Maybe. The results of a new poll show Rep. Stefanik narrowing the gap with Governor Hochul, in large part because of a swing towards the GOP among independent voters. But there is still an awful lot of ground for the Republican candidate to make up.
US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is gaining ground on Gov. Kathy Hochul in what is shaping up to be a bruising general election for the Empire State’s next governor — with the Republican firebrand gaining support among independents, a new poll shows.
Stefanik notched a notable 5-point increase in a head-to-head matchup against Hochul in Sienna University’s latest survey, shrinking the incumbent’s lead in the closely watched race.
The poll, conducted November 10-12 and released on Tuesday, has Hochul leading Stefanik 52% to 32% in the general election.
Granted, the election is almost a year away, and a lot could happen in that time. But even given that, a 20-point gap is still daunting.
The key, as is so often the case in New York, will be in the New York suburbs and upstate. The question will be if any swing by independents can make up Democrat Hochul's enormous lead in New York City - especially now, given her recent capitulation - er, endorsement of New York's democratic socialist (communist) Zohran Mamdani in the city's mayoral election.
“In the race against Stefanik, Hochul continues to run very strongly with Democrats, 78-9%, however, Stefanik has now widened her lead among Republicans, 79-11%, up from 68-15% in September, and significantly narrowed the gap among independents, with whom Hochul now leads 40-36%, down from 43-25% in September,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
“Hochul has a 42-point lead in New York City but leads by only nine points in the downstate suburbs and a very narrow three points upstate.”
It's a bit early for New York Republicans to get too happy about this whole thing.
Read More: The GOP Needs a ‘Strategery’ to Boost Its Voters’ Turnout for 2026
Elise Stefanik Torches Kathy Hochul in Fiery Campaign Launch: ‘Worst Governor in America’
There is a hopeful note, though: Governor Hochul's approval ratings are slipping, dropping two points over recent weeks to around 43 percent. That's not an encouraging number for an incumbent governor, and if Rep. Stefanik can run a good race, hammering the governor on her many failures and weaknesses, she may be able to narrow the gap further. This same survey also found that 48 percent of voters would prefer "somebody else" over Governor Hochul, and of those, a majority say that they would prefer to have a Republican governor.
While it's very early, polls like this can point a campaign in the right direction. Governor Hochul has, to any rational observer, been a feckless and incapable governor. From the COVID debacle to her embarrassing acceptance of a communist candidate for the mayoralty of the nation's largest city, there's a lot there for a sharp, alert Republican with a good campaign to take advantage of.
Rep. Elise Stefanik should be telling her campaign team one thing right now: "Sharpen up your teeth."
Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.
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