The Trump administration has been bringing in trade deal after trade deal. A recent deal with Japan, which we might legitimately call a big, beautiful deal, is a major feather in the administration's cap. But there's at least one more major deal that needs to be concluded.
While President Donald Trump is in Scotland, he will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to talk trade, tariffs, and business between the United States and Europe.
Trump, who landed at Prestwick Airport on Friday, confirmed the meeting with the EU Commission president, calling her “a highly respected woman” and saying the outcome was “50–50.” He added, “This could be the biggest deal of them all.”
Unless a breakthrough is reached, the EU faces a dramatic escalation in tariffs from August 1—including a blanket 30% levy on goods entering the U.S. Brussels is scrambling to protect its exports, already hit with 25% tariffs on cars, 50% on steel and aluminium, and a 10% general rate. The EU has prepared retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion, targeting U.S. products from soybeans to yachts, but most member states would prefer to settle.
President Trump is likely banking on the notion that the EU needs us more than we need them, and he's likely right in that assessment. The early indications are that President von der Leyen will be looking to conclude a deal as soon as terms can be hammered out.
In private, the EU has already shown signs of folding. In May, it quietly reclassified U.S. imports as “low risk” under its anti-deforestation law, a key American demand. Brussels also faces pressure to soften digital regulations seen in Washington as an attack on free speech and U.S. tech firms.
Despite its tough talk, the European Commission is now entertaining a deal based on a 15% baseline U.S. tariff—matching Japan’s recent agreement—with carve-outs for critical sectors like aircraft and pharmaceuticals. France is pushing back, insisting any tariff deal must be strictly reciprocal, while Germany and Italy want an agreement done.
The member nations of the European Commission are, collectively, one of the United States' major trade partners, with annual trade approaching a trillion dollars. It's in the interests of both nations to make a deal. President Trump's second administration has had some major successes in negotiating just these kinds of trade deals so far.
The president has also been warning the European Commission about their feckless and (very likely) self-destructive immigration policies:
Read More: European Commission Trying to Slip Illegal Immigrants in Through the Cracks
'Horrible Invasion': Pres. Trump Issues Dire Warning to European Leaders About Illegal Immigration
There are some other implications of a major U.S./EU trade deal. First, if any solid deals for U.S. energy would put some pressure on Russia, perhaps enough to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table over the Russo-Ukraine War.
One thing for sure will come of this meeting: The Trump administration is banking, literally, on the European Commission knowing that they need America more than America needs them. The outcome of these meetings may reveal whether he is correct in that assessment.
[Editor's Note: This article was edited for clarity post-publication.]
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