The attack on Fort Sumter near Charleston, South Carolina, led to a fratricidal war that resulted in the deaths of between 600,000 and 700,000 Americans. It left a country transformed, the federal government ascendant, and the supremacy of states diminished, slavery abolished; nothing was the same after 1865. Bad feelings from that conflict still exist today, 160 years later.

There's been a lot of talk about the possibility of another American civil war, and every time we see another round of rioting and looting in another (blue) American city, we see the talk start up again. That's understandable, although a look at history tells us that it's more often a military coup (see: the Spanish Civil War) that starts up these affairs than civil discord. In our case, my guess is that it would be a little of both. But what possible turning points might kick us over the edge into a second civil war?

It's an interesting topic for speculation. One of the most likely possibilities is an outgrowth of what we're already seeing: An angry mob storming a government building. And not just any government building. 

We've seen mobs of thousands in some of our major cities. It's a horrible prospect, but we need to consider a few facts: A mob that size has the capability to overwhelm any defenses, even those at the White House or the Capitol. They would doubtless take casualties, but one should never underestimate the frenzy an angry mob can reach; the 1863 New York Draft Riots saw armed rioters clashing directly with police and militia forces, with casualties on both sides. The "Long, hot summer of 1967" saw riots across the country, with mobs clashing directly with armed police and National Guard. There is a frenzy in the mob that can turn swiftly into a callous disregard for the safety of ourselves or others. History is replete with examples.

So, let's say that the White House and/or the Capitol were breached, entered, overrun, with the possibility of some elected officials harmed or killed. This wouldn't be a repeat of the J6 hooliganism, but an actual attack.

It's belaboring the obvious that this would be an actual insurrection, and very likely the flashpoint of an actual civil war, two factions vying for control of one nation. It wouldn't be like the 1861-1865 war. No massed armies maneuvering in the countryside, and no big, named battles. This would be much more like the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland, or like the Balkans fighting in the late '90s - a street-to-street fight, neighbors against neighbors. These are the ugliest, the very ugliest kinds of wars. They engender hatreds that can last for hundreds of years. 

There are, as I see it, three likely outcomes of such a conflict:

Secession, or the balkanization of the United States. This results in the end of the United States as we know it. Some kind of alliance will probably exist between the fractured states, but at this point, I’m guessing the divisions would be too deep; I doubt, for example, the People’s Republic of California will be too interested in any cooperation with the Republic of Texas or the Alaska Free State.

One side (almost certainly the Red side) wins. This is also likely to end the United States as we know it. Civil wars, throughout history, have rarely led to a renewal of liberty. Far more likely is a totalitarian state in form if not in name, and probably – indeed, almost certainly – with, as I mentioned, Northern Ireland-style “Troubles” in plenty of the areas where the losing side still makes up much of the population.

And, finally, somehow, things calm down, and the country returns to some semblance of its former self. We can maybe return to some semblance of civility and normal levels of discourse – but consider how much the Overton Window has already shifted, especially on the left, that seems the least likely of outcomes, even if it is the most optimistic.

It's not a happy prospect. But if you look back at the history of mob rebellions, you do see some startling similarities to what is going on in our major cities, even today.

See Also: Watch: Protesters Breach Barriers, Rush the US Capitol

Must-See: Rioter Assaults LASD Deputy, and a Bystander Delivers a Lesson He'll Never Forget

The lesson from all this: These ongoing riots and rebellions cannot stand. They have to be brought under control, because the other option is escalation, with an increased likelihood of the scenario described above. That's why President Trump is right to bring the National Guard and the Marines into Los Angeles. These are not actions protected by the First Amendment; these are acts of rebellion against the established authority, and must be quelled.

We might also note that in the summer of 1861, many, including President Lincoln, figured that the war would be brief; the first round of volunteers was brought in for a three-month term of service. That didn't happen. That, too, should be a lesson for us now.