Will New York's Next Governor Be a Republican? Rep. Stefanik Might Challenge Dem Hochul.

New York is a deep-blue state, by most measures, but as is so often the case, the hinterlands are pretty conservative. Once you get outside of New York City and Albany, you run into more conservative folks. Consider the state's 21st congressional district, held by Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY). It covers much of the northernmost part of the state, is nearly 60 percent rural, and she won her 2024 reelection bid over Democrat Paula Collins by a wide margin - 62-38 percent.

Now, though, Rep. Stefanik may be setting her sights a little higher. She is reportedly considering mounting a challenge to New York Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2026 election.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is considering a 2026 bid for governor in her home state, multiple sources close to her confirmed to Fox News Digital.
Stefanik was withdrawn from consideration as President Donald Trump’s United Nations Ambassador to shore up numbers of the House Republicans' narrow majority. She is now the chairwoman of House Republican Leadership.
Sources tell Fox News Digital that she is being encouraged to run by allies of Trump and longtime friends. Stefanik outperformed the president in her congressional district in 2016, 2020 and 2024, which one source says could be an indicator that she could do well with New York's swing voters. The Republican won with 62% of the vote in her strongly conservative district in November.

Running in her red district, though, is a very different proposition than running for statewide office. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris easily carried New York over President Trump in the 2024 election, 55.9 to 43.3 percent. And Rep. Stefanik is a known Trump ally. That's great for her district and the Trump team is (rightfully) glad to have her on board, but it may influence enough swing voters to turn things against her.

On the other hand, Governor Hochul seems to be about as popular as athlete's foot in New York at the moment.

On Wednesday, Stefanik made the case for a GOP win in New York this year when she commented on a new poll by Marist which is the latest to indicate that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul's approval ratings are underwater with New York State voters.
"This latest bombshell polling proves what every New Yorker already knows: that we must FIRE Kathy Hochul in 2026 to SAVE NEW YORK. Hochul is the Worst Governor in America and it’s not even close," Stefanik argued in a statement.

The pros here for New York would be considerable. If Elise Stefanik wins, the people of New York get a huge upgrade in Albany, and Ms. Stefanik's district would likely stay in Republican hands, given the last few elections.

The cons here are for the United States; Elise Stefanik has been pretty effective in the House, and now has been around long enough to learn the ropes. And the GOP majority is still hair-raisingly thin. We need every vote we can get in the House, and Elise Stefanik has been pretty reliable.

NY Rep. Elise Stefanik Speaks Out After Her UN Nomination As Ambassador Is Pulled

But wouldn't it be an interesting race? I have no idea if Governor Hochul would accept any invitation for a gubernatorial debate, but it would sure be entertaining. I don't normally pay too much attention to East Coast politics, but I'd tune in for that one.

Also, much depends on what goes on between now and November 2026. If President Trump keeps notching up wins and the economy picks up, the GOP may pick up seats, which is unusual for a midterm. Those coattails may be long and broad enough to carry Elise Stefanik into the governor's chair in Albany.

Will New Yorkers finally decide they've had enough of Governor Hochul? Will they march to the polls, and say, "We won't get fooled again?"

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