Newt Gingrich on New York: Could Trump Actually Take the Empire State?

Let me just open by saying that I think Donald Trump and JD Vance winning New York's electoral votes is the longest of long shots. But Newt Gingrich, appearing on the Fox Business Network with Maria Bartiromo, made some astute observations about Trump's Madison Square Garden rally - and the implications thereof. But there's one thing I think he missed.

Mr. Gingrich describes Donald Trump's speech as "very powerful and very direct" - typical for Trump - and notes that there was a palpable excitement and, shall we say, joy in the crowd. It was a thing to see, and many of my RedState colleagues have told the tale.

When They Tell You Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden Event Was a 'Nazi Rally,' Show Them This

Maria asked the former Speaker:

So, you think Trump could take New York? Can he win New York?

Before I get into the Speaker's reply, let me interject that Trump winning the Empire State would be one of the most earth-shaking upsets in recent political history. The last time New York sent its Electoral College votes in for a Republican was in Ronald Reagan's landslide reelection in 1984.

Mr. Gingrich replied:

Well, I think it's a long shot, I think it depends on how tired New Yorkers are of crime, the cost of taxes, and corruption. He's certainly going to do better in New York than he did in his first two campaigns. I think he's got an outside chance. I don't think... If he carries New York, this will be a landslide of a Reagan scale. But he certainly has momentum. What he is doing is he's helping to re-elect Republican Congressmen in New York, and that's vital if Speaker Johnson is going to have a big enough majority to enact the Trump agenda.

That much is certain; if Donald Trump and JD Vance managed, against seemingly insurmountable odds, to take New York - and I would remind the readers that as of this writing, the RealClearPolitics polling average for New York has Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 16.5 percent - that's an upset that would be registered on the Richter scale.

But then, as my colleague Nick Arama reminds us, some places may well be in play already that we haven't expected:

There is one thing, however, that Mr. Gingrich is missing here. There's a lot more to the state of the race, and Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, than just the near-impossible odds of Trump's taking New York. There's even more to it than the task of helping down-ballot Republicans in New York. There's a bigger picture; there's a bigger message being delivered here, and that message was trebly effective coming from New York.

New York, you see, isn't just an American city. More than any other city on the planet, perhaps, New York is an international city. It's the center of global finance. It's the economic epicenter of the planet, and what's more, it's a major cultural center. A significant event in New York, like Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, draws eyes from all over the planet. And by hosting a huge, boisterous, in-your-face MAGA rally in Madison Square Garden, Trump is in effect throwing down the gauntlet not only to American Democrats but to the whole world, and the message is "I'm coming back, and this time I'm not making the same mistakes I made the first time."

It was a powerful message. It remains a powerful message. What's more, it's a winning message. And delivered this close to the election, it's a game-changing message.