But there are policy discussions to be had, as well, in response to these storms as well as in anticipation of future storms. And those policy discussions must be based, not on our heartfelt emotional responses to human suffering, but on a dispassionate analysis of data - particularly the claims by climate activists that the number and intensity of hurricanes are increasing, so we must therefore sacrifice our modern, energy-dependent, technological lifestyle to deal with it. That's just not true, and an analysis of the data for Florida in particular, carried out by Dr. Roy Spencer, makes that very plain.

First, Dr. Spencer's bona fides from his blog shows us that this is a guy who knows what he's talking about:

Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

That's a pretty impressive listing of achievements, and unlike the generic term "scientist" that climate scolds toss around to evoke some nebulous figure like the Professor on "Gilligan's Island," Dr. Spencer is actually educated and experienced in meteorology and climatology. So, what does he have to say about hurricanes and Florida?

The following plot shows the intensity of major hurricanes (100 knots or greater maximum sustained wind speed) striking Florida since 1900, updated through recent (2024) Hurricane Helene:

Trends in Major Florida Hurricanes 1900-2020, credit: Dr. Roy Spencer.https://t.co/uP86fgBqTM pic.twitter.com/Yz9EDuBqfJ

— Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) October 8, 2024

As can be seen from the linear trend line, there has been no significant trend in the intensity of major hurricanes striking Florida since 1900. 

But what about the number of hurricanes? The next plot shows there has been a weak upward trend in the decadal totals of major hurricanes striking Florida since 1900:

Number of Major Florida Hurricanes, 1900-2020, credit: Dr. Roy Spencer.https://t.co/uP86fgBqTM pic.twitter.com/38dU9be3YS

— Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) October 8, 2024

Note that the 2020s number might well increase, since the end of the current (2024) hurricane season will be only half-way through the 2020s. While Hurricane Milton has just been classified as a major hurricane, in 2 days time it is expected to be under increasing wind shear, so it is not obvious it will strike Florida as a major hurricane, and so I did not include it in the above charts.

Another feature of the second chart above shows that a native Floridian born in the 1960s or 1970s would indeed have experienced an increase in major hurricanes striking Florida during their lifetime. But their first couple of decades of personal experience would have occurred during a historic lull in hurricane activity.

This ties in nicely with the larger trends I wrote of only days ago:

See Related: The Data Is Clear: Hurricanes Are Not Getting More Dangerous

It's also important to note that we tend to judge storm damage in terms of dollar amounts. That's also somewhat misleading, as in 1900 Florida's population was very low; in that year, the population of Florida was only 530,000, compared to today's 22.6 million. In 1900, 1,681 people lived in Miami; today, that number is over six million.

None of this is stopping the climate scolds from claiming that our modern lifestyle is somehow making hurricanes worse, but as Dr. Spencer shows us, the data just doesn't support that claim. So, no, there's no reason for us to let the scolds tell us we must give up our cars and trucks, our reliable natural gas-powered electrical plants, and our very modern technological lifestyle to try to reduce the number of hurricanes. While each and every hurricane is a horrible event, while the human cost is still terrible, while our hearts go out to those who suffer from the storms, the data just doesn't support the claims of the climate scolds. Neither activists nor politicians should be telling us otherwise.

Besides, things are bad enough already.

See Related: Feds' Appalling Response to NC Hurricane Victims Is Spawning Conspiracies, but There's a Silver Lining

Dr. Spencer concludes:

The point is that there is a huge amount of natural decadal- to centennial-time scale variability in hurricane activity in Florida (or any other hurricane-prone state). But with increasing numbers of people thinking that the government is somehow influencing hurricane activity (I’m seeing a lot of this on Twitter), I doubt that actual data will have much influence on those people, and as I approach 70 years on this Earth I have noticed a long-term decline in critical thinking regarding weather, climate, and causation. I doubt that trend will change any time soon.

That's sadly true. Most people don't understand the scientific method, how to analyze data, and how to draw conclusions from that data. Yes, the climate changes; it always has and always will. Yes, humans have some effect - an effect that can be dwarfed by one good volcano. But our effect, no matter what the finger-wagging scolds tell us, is not justification for our forgoing our modern, energy-intensive, technological lifestyle. And now, for Florida, we have even more data clearly showing this to be the case.