Arizona Senate Race Shaping Up to Be a Nail-Biter: Lake and Gallego in Dead Heat

AP Photo/Matt York

The road to a Republican majority in the Senate may well go through Arizona. Things in the Grand Canyon State are getting interesting; in at least one recent poll, Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Ruben Gallego are essentially tied.


Multiple public polls show the U.S. Senate race in Arizona between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Ruben Gallego tightening.

Additionally, an internal Republican poll finds Lake with a 1 percent lead in the contest.

The two are running to replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking re-election.

Lake faces Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the state's July 30 GOP primary, while Gallego, an Arizona congressman, is unopposed in the Democratic race.

According to the political site FiveThirtyEight, public polls as recently as last month found Gallego with a 10 to 13 percent lead over Lake.

However, in the most recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, the Democrat held only a 4 percent advantage.

The poll was conducted June 13-18 among a sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Arizona is pretty much a must-win if Republicans are to take control of the Senate, but other states look ready to fall into the GOP's column.

See Related: Bad News for Democrats: GOP's Chances of Flipping the Senate Are Looking Even Better 

Democrat Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen's Seat Is in 'Peril,' As Race Moves From 'Lean Dem' to 'Toss Up'


Maryland, surprisingly, is one of the possibilities, where Republican Larry Hogan is currently polling almost four points above Democrat David Trone in the RealClearPolitics average. West Virginia, where Democrat Joe Manchin is retiring, is expected to be a GOP pickup; Governor Jim Justice is dominating his Democrat opponent Glenn Elliot by almost forty points in the deep-red state.

Back in Arizona: The Lake campaign is leaning heavily into tying Gallego to President Joe Biden.

In a Thursday news release, the Lake campaign said, "The latest poll in the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona shows Kari Lake leading Ruben Gallego by 1-point, 47% to 46%, among likely voters in an NRSC internal poll."

"The poll aligns with others conducted by credible pollsters, showing the race as a statistical tie, including the bipartisan AARP Poll conducted by President Trump and Joe Biden’s pollster," the campaign added.

“Arizonans overwhelmingly disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance. Soon, Arizonans will learn just how closely Ruben Gallego is tied to Joe Biden and his radical policies – voting with him 100% of the time – and they won’t approve of his record either," it said.

The story also mentions possible GOP pickups in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, although polling in those states is either within the margin of error or showing the Democrat candidates in the lead.


Assuming Donald Trump wins his non-consecutive second term, which is looking increasingly likely, any successful implementation of his agenda will require every House and Senate seat the GOP can pick up. Control of the Senate is, at this moment, anyone's guess. But keep an eye on Arizona.

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