Donald Trump just keeps breaking everyone's expectations. A former President, trying to Grover Cleveland his way into a non-consecutive second term, beset on all sides by various lawfare actions and actually dragged into a trial on jumped-up felony charges - and he just keeps gaining ground.
The question everyone is asking, especially around the New York trial which is expected to go to the jury next week, is "At what point does this become a drag on Trump's candidacy?" Because, up to this point, the answer has been "It isn't":
Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson told Fox News that he did not think "a guilty verdict would fundamentally change the landscape of the race." Longtime Republican pollster Neil Newhouse went even further, arguing that a Trump conviction "is unlikely to make any difference."
Both pointed to the fact that "attitudes are so set in concrete" regarding both the Republican former president and his Democratic successor in the White House.
That's very likely true; it's been a traditional assumption that a good portion of the voting public doesn't really start paying attention to politics until after Labor Day. But this is hardly a normal election cycle, and Donald Trump is not only leading in the polls but is pulling ahead; an Emerson poll released Friday is just the latest indicator:
The May 2024 Emerson College Polling national survey of U.S. voters finds 46% support former President Donald Trump, and 44% support President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Ten percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, the race splits evenly: 50% support Trump and 50% Biden.
Now, my standard disclaimer: Polls like this don't reflect how we elect Presidents; the Electoral College doesn't work on a national vote, which is what this poll appears to emulate. But the RealClearPolitics battleground state averages are, as of this writing, all breaking Trump's way.
In other words, the lawfare attacks on Donald Trump don't seem to be hurting him any. If anything, they are pointing out Trump's uncanny ability to Obi-Wan Kenobi attacks into greater political stature.
See Related: That's a Wrap - Sort Of (Trump Trial - Day 20)
What's more, Trump is outflanking out his opponent--by taking the campaign into deeply Democratic jurisdictions, like New Jersey and the Bronx, and drawing some surprising crowds. It's enough to make one wonder if Trump has been reading Carl von Clausewitz - or Sun Tzu. He's playing on Joe Biden's home ground, and to date, befuddled old Joe has been set back on his heels. He alternates between calling lids at 1 PM at the White House, and dodging any contact at all by bumbling off to his Delaware estate for long weekends - almost every week.
And that's a big thing: Trump looks strong, Biden looks weak. People react to that.
See Related: Trump's Bronx Rally Proves That Bronx Folks Know Trump Cares and Biden Doesn't
What does the left have left?
Well, the lawfare will certainly continue. It's not impossible that Judge Merchan, who is presiding over Trump's New York "hush money" trial, may be partisan enough to fling a former POTUS into a jail cell if a New York jury returns a guilty verdict on what are clearly trumped-up (hah) charges. A historical moment, that would be. But bear in mind indicators like the Emerson poll above, wherein undecided voters appear to be breaking 50-50 between Trump and Biden; and note the other observations, that attitudes are already "set in concrete." A conviction could likely make those already committed to voting for Trump so angry about what sure appears to be a partisan process that they would be willing to crawl 10 miles through razor blades, scrap iron, and busted glass to cast their votes for Trump.
There's another thing: If coming out of this Memorial Day weekend, the traditional beginning of the summer season, we experience another leftist-driven "Summer of Love," Democrats in general will be put in a damnably tough spot.
See Related: Signs Are Pointing Toward Another Leftist-Fueled Summer of Violence
I've been saying for some time now that we're in for a long, hot summer, and I don't see anything coming out of the Trump lawfare actions that change that assessment - especially if, against expectations, the New York trial results in a hung jury or an acquittal.
Violence spilling on the streets will be laid at the feet of Democrats. It will be laid at the toes of Joe Biden's boat anchor shoes, to be specific, and the befuddled old President simply won't have any good messaging to present on his own behalf.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is all about messaging. He's a salesman, above all else, and he's selling Trump right now - and doing a pretty good job of it.
Whatever the outcome of the trial - whatever the outcome of November's elections - this will be one for the history books, and with each passing day it looks like, despite everything the Democrats throw at him, Trump keeps coming back.
