As the 2024 GOP presidential field narrows, and as conclusions become more visible, we are seeing a lot of the inevitable in primary contests; when a candidate drops out, his supporters and donors start looking for the most plausible option in those candidates who remain. Normally one would expect them to choose a candidate who has some decent odds of winning, which is why it's a tad surprising to see some of recent primary dropout, Senator Tim Scott's support going to Nikki Haley.

Several of Scott’s financial backers have quickly pivoted to Haley in the days since the South Carolina senator ended his bid for the White House, as Haley jockeys with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to become the alternative to former President Donald Trump, the current front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.  

In one sign of growing donor enthusiasm for her campaign, billionaire hedge fund founder Ken Griffin said this week he is now considering financially backing Haley after remaining on the sidelines in the GOP primary.  

“Everything I hear is folks moving to Haley,” said Eric Levine, a New York lawyer and GOP fundraiser who supported Scott’s candidacy and now is collecting campaign contributions for the former South Carolina governor. He said he plans to host a fundraiser for Haley on December 4.  

The current RealClearPolitics polling average for the GOP nomination has former President Trump's support at 59.7 percent, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 14.3 percent and former South Carolina Governor Haley at 9.5 percent. Vivek Ramaswamy's support is at 5.1 percent, with none of the other candidates rising above 5 percent.

What's interesting is that when you examine the historical polling chart at the RealClearPolitics page linked above, Nikki Haley's support level doesn't seem to have changed much over time, and since Tim Scott was polling in single digits when he abandoned his run, it doesn't seem likely that any switch-over of donors will give the former Governor and UN ambassador any big boost. The last few polls have shown her with a modest, gradual gain, but she's still in a comfortable but seemingly inevitable third place. Haley polls well against Joe Biden, but historically primary voters don't pay much attention to those polls, and it's increasingly likely that the befuddled Biden won't be the Democrat candidate in 2024.

It's early -- a reminder, not one primary vote has yet been cast and won't be for some time -- but speaking as someone who has, since the late '70s, watched elections like lots of people watch the various sports, my very early prediction remains as it has been for a few weeks now. This primary campaign is a contest between former President Donald Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis, with Trump at the moment heavily favored. Mind you, predictions are notoriously difficult, especially when they're about the future.

I've already predicted that Joe Biden won't be the Democrats' candidate, and that Kamala Harris won't be, either. But I'm less certain about that prediction; if they do keep old Joe on the ticket, it will be nice for a change to see that the Republicans aren't alone in their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I'll add this prediction as well, which is worth every penny you paid for it: The day will come when Ron DeSantis will be President. If it's not this time, it will be in 2028 or 2032. He's young, he has a great conservative record, and he's not going away.

The next few months will be interesting indeed. Fasten your seat belts! It's going to be a wild ride.